IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apfiec/v13y2003i3p211-223.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Capital asset pricing model on UK securities using ARCH

Author

Listed:
  • David Morelli

Abstract

This study tests conditional and unconditional versions of the CAPM using portfolios made up of security returns in the UK over the period January 1980-December 1999. The main objectives are to see if the GARCH betas differ from the unconditional betas, and to see if the market risk premium is positive. The CAPM tests are two-pass, where monthly returns are regressed on alternative beta estimates, and the time series mean of the coefficients is the average market premium. It is found that the GARCH and unconditional betas are correlated, either 0.475 or 0.575 depending on the method used. Using unconditional betas the average market premium is negative, but not statistically significant. Using conditional betas the average market premium is positive but not statistically significant. For some individual years a positive statistically significant risk premium is found. These individual years tend to correspond to periods when the stock market was particularly volatile which would tend to suggest that the model has value during periods of relatively high volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • David Morelli, 2003. "Capital asset pricing model on UK securities using ARCH," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 211-223.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:13:y:2003:i:3:p:211-223
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100110115174
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09603100110115174
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/09603100110115174?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David McMillan & Alan Speight & Owain Apgwilym, 2000. "Forecasting UK stock market volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 435-448.
    2. Patricia Fraser & David Power, 1997. "Stock return volatility and information: an empirical analysis of Pacific Rim, UK and US equity markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 241-253.
    3. De Santis, Giorgio & Gerard, Bruno, 1997. "International Asset Pricing and Portfolio Diversification with Time-Varying Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1881-1912, December.
    4. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    5. Andrew Clare & Raymond O'Brien & Stephen Thomas & Michael Wickens, "undated". "Macroeconomic Shocks and the Domestic CAPM: Evidence from the UK Stock Market," Discussion Papers 94/10, Department of Economics, University of York.
    6. Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 1992. "Stock returns and volatility: An empirical study of the UK stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 37-59, February.
    7. Baillie, Richard T. & DeGennaro, Ramon P., 1990. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 203-214, June.
    8. Ferson, Wayne E & Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1987. "Tests of Asset Pricing with Time-Varying Expected Risk Premiums and Market Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 201-220, June.
    9. Roll, Richard, 1977. "A critique of the asset pricing theory's tests Part I: On past and potential testability of the theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 129-176, March.
    10. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    11. Beenstock, Michael & Chan, Kam-Fai, 1986. "Testing the Arbitrage Pricing Theory in the United Kingdom," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(2), pages 121-141, May.
    12. Bjorn Hansson & Peter Hordahl, 1998. "Testing the conditional CAPM using multivariate GARCH-M," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 377-388.
    13. Gibbons, Michael R. & Ferson, Wayne, 1985. "Testing asset pricing models with changing expectations and an unobservable market portfolio," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 217-236, June.
    14. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:1:p:122-50 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Charles Engel & Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1989. "Conditional Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 2890, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    17. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    18. Bodurtha, James N, Jr & Mark, Nelson C, 1991. "Testing the CAPM with Time-Varying Risks and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1485-1505, September.
    19. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    20. Gibbons, Michael R., 1982. "Multivariate tests of financial models : A new approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 3-27, March.
    21. Ng, Lilian, 1991. "Tests of the CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances: A Multivariate GARCH Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1507-1521, September.
    22. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yih Su & Jing-Shiang Hwang, 2009. "A two-phase approach to estimating time-varying parameters in the capital asset pricing model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 79-89.
    2. Roman Mestre, 2021. "A wavelet approach of investing behaviors and their effects on risk exposures," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-37, December.
    3. Tienyu Hwang & Simon Gao & Heather Owen, 2012. "A two‐pass model study of the CAPM: evidence from the UK stock market," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 29(2), pages 89-104, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner - L, 1991. "es modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 24, pages 1-59.
    2. Todd Prono, 2006. "GARCH-based identification of triangular systems with an application to the CAPM: still living with the roll critique," Working Papers 07-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Bjorn Hansson & Peter Hordahl, 1998. "Testing the conditional CAPM using multivariate GARCH-M," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 377-388.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    5. Wang, Lu, 2021. "Time-varying conditional beta, return spillovers, and dynamic bank diversification strategies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 272-280.
    6. Smith, Daniel R., 2007. "Conditional coskewness and asset pricing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 91-119, January.
    7. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    8. Chevapatrakul, Thanaset, 2013. "Return sign forecasts based on conditional risk: Evidence from the UK stock market index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2342-2353.
    9. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    10. Li, Yuming, 1998. "Expected stock returns, risk premiums and volatilities of economic factors1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 69-97, June.
    11. De Santis, Giorgio & imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 1997. "Stock returns and volatility in emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 561-579, August.
    12. Karali, Berna & Ramirez, Octavio A., 2014. "Macro determinants of volatility and volatility spillover in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 413-421.
    13. Madhusudan Karmakar, 2007. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk-return Relationship in the Indian Stock Market," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 8(1), pages 99-116, January.
    14. Tang, Gordon Y. N. & Shum, Wai Cheong, 2004. "The risk-return relations in the Singapore stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 179-195, April.
    15. repec:adr:anecst:y:1991:i:24:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Morelli, David, 2011. "Joint conditionality in testing the beta-return relationship: Evidence based on the UK stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-13, February.
    17. Bali, Turan G. & Wu, Liuren, 2010. "The role of exchange rates in intertemporal risk-return relations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1670-1686, December.
    18. Xing, Xuejing & Howe, John S., 2003. "The empirical relationship between risk and return: evidence from the UK stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 329-346.
    19. Hisham Al Refai & Gazi Mainul Hassan, 2018. "The Impact of Market-wide Volatility on Time-varying Risk: Evidence from Qatar Stock Exchange," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(2_suppl), pages 239-258, August.
    20. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, December.
    21. Kim, Dongcheol & Kon, Stanley J., 1999. "Structural change and time dependence in models of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 283-308, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:13:y:2003:i:3:p:211-223. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.