IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/28114.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Indirect Costs of Government Aid and Intermediary Supply Effects: Lessons From the Paycheck Protection Program

Author

Listed:
  • Tetyana Balyuk
  • Nagpurnanand R. Prabhala
  • Manju Puri

Abstract

The $669 billion Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) provides highly subsidized financing to small businesses. The PPP is a positive shock in financing supply to the small, highly constrained publicly listed firms in our sample and has average positive treatment effects. Yet, uptake is not universal. In fact, several firms return PPP funds before use, and curiously, experience positive valuation effects when they do so. These firms desire and the markets value the release from government oversight even if it means giving up cheap funding. The PPP is also a demand shock to the banks making PPP loans. Intermediary supply effects shape PPP delivery. Larger borrowers enjoy earlier PPP access, an effect that is more pronounced in big banks. The results have implications for policy design, the costs of being public, and bank-firm relationships.

Suggested Citation

  • Tetyana Balyuk & Nagpurnanand R. Prabhala & Manju Puri, 2020. "Indirect Costs of Government Aid and Intermediary Supply Effects: Lessons From the Paycheck Protection Program," NBER Working Papers 28114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28114
    Note: CF ME PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w28114.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James, Christopher, 1987. "Some evidence on the uniqueness of bank loans," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 217-235, December.
    2. Rüdiger Fahlenbrach & Kevin Rageth & René M Stulz, 2021. "How Valuable Is Financial Flexibility when Revenue Stops? Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis [The risk of being a fallen angel and the corporate dash for cash in the midst of COVID]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5474-5521.
    3. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:2:p:413-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Lummer, Scott L. & McConnell, John J., 1989. "Further evidence on the bank lending process and the capital-market response to bank loan agreements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 99-122, November.
    5. Stefano Ramelli & Alexander F Wagner, 2020. "Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 622-655.
    6. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Esther Duflo, 2014. "Do Firms Want to Borrow More? Testing Credit Constraints Using a Directed Lending Program," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(2), pages 572-607.
    7. Berger, Allen N. & Miller, Nathan H. & Petersen, Mitchell A. & Rajan, Raghuram G. & Stein, Jeremy C., 2005. "Does function follow organizational form? Evidence from the lending practices of large and small banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 237-269, May.
    8. Bharath, Sreedhar & Dahiya, Sandeep & Saunders, Anthony & Srinivasan, Anand, 2007. "So what do I get? The bank's view of lending relationships," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 368-419, August.
    9. Berger, Allen N & Udell, Gregory F, 1995. "Relationship Lending and Lines of Credit in Small Firm Finance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 351-381, July.
    10. Michael Faulkender & Mitchell A. Petersen, 2006. "Does the Source of Capital Affect Capital Structure?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 45-79.
    11. Karpoff, Jonathan M. & Lee, D. Scott & Martin, Gerald S., 2008. "The Cost to Firms of Cooking the Books," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(3), pages 581-611, September.
    12. Fich, Eliezer M. & Shivdasani, Anil, 2007. "Financial fraud, director reputation, and shareholder wealth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 306-336, November.
    13. Toni M. Whited & Guojun Wu, 2006. "Financial Constraints Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 531-559.
    14. Stefano Ramelli & Alexander F Wagner, 0. "Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19," Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 622-655.
    15. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    16. Michael Schwert, 2018. "Bank Capital and Lending Relationships," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(2), pages 787-830, April.
    17. Prabhala, N R, 1997. "Conditional Methods in Event Studies and an Equilibrium Justification for Standard Event-Study Procedures," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 1-38.
    18. Viral V Acharya & Sascha Steffen, 0. "The Risk of Being a Fallen Angel and the Corporate Dash for Cash in the Midst of COVID," Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 430-471.
    19. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard Stanton & Josef Zechner, 2010. "Human Capital, Bankruptcy, and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(3), pages 891-926, June.
    20. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
    21. Arthur Korteweg, 2010. "The Net Benefits to Leverage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(6), pages 2137-2170, December.
    22. Bruce Haslem & Irena Hutton & Aimee Hoffmann Smith, 2017. "How Much Do Corporate Defendants Really Lose? A New Verdict on the Reputation Loss Induced by Corporate Litigation," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 46(2), pages 323-358, June.
    23. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    24. Charles J. Hadlock & Joshua R. Pierce, 2010. "New Evidence on Measuring Financial Constraints: Moving Beyond the KZ Index," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(5), pages 1909-1940.
    25. Hassan, Tarek & Hollander, Stephan & van Lent, Laurence & Schwedeler, Markus & Tahoun, Ahmed, 2020. "Firm-Level Exposure to Epidemic Diseases: Covid-19, SARS, and H1N1," CEPR Discussion Papers 14573, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    26. Eckbo, B Espen & Maksimovic, Vojislav & Williams, Joseph, 1990. "Consistent Estimation of Cross-Sectional Models in Event Studies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(3), pages 343-365.
    27. Erel, Isil & Liebersohn, Jack, 2020. "Does FinTech Substitute for Banks? Evidence from the Paycheck Protection Program," Working Paper Series 2020-16, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    28. Ding, Wenzhi & Levine, Ross & Lin, Chen & Xie, Wensi, 2021. "Corporate immunity to the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 802-830.
    29. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Kyle J. Kost & Marco C. Sammon & Tasaneeya Viratyosin, 2020. "The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 26945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Robert P. Bartlett III & Adair Morse, 2020. "Small Business Survival Capabilities and Policy Effectiveness: Evidence from Oakland," NBER Working Papers 27629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Granja, João & Makridis, Christos & Yannelis, Constantine & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Did the paycheck protection program hit the target?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 725-761.
    32. Alexander W. Bartik & Zoe B. Cullen & Edward L. Glaeser & Michael Luca & Christopher T. Stanton & Adi Sunderam, 2020. "When Should Public Programs be Privately Administered? Theory and Evidence from the Paycheck Protection Program," NBER Working Papers 27623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Steven Drucker & Manju Puri, 2005. "On the Benefits of Concurrent Lending and Underwriting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2763-2799, December.
    34. Isil Erel & Jack Liebersohn, 2020. "Does FinTech Substitute for Banks? Evidence from the Paycheck Protection Program," NBER Working Papers 27659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Alexander, Cindy R, 1999. "On the Nature of the Reputational Penalty for Corporate Crime: Evidence," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(1), pages 489-526, April.
    36. Armour, John & Mayer, Colin & Polo, Andrea, 2017. "Regulatory Sanctions and Reputational Damage in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 1429-1448, August.
    37. Nagpurnanand R. Prabhala, 1997. "Conditional Methods in Event-Studies and an Equilibrium Justification for Standard Event-Study Procedures," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm55, Yale School of Management.
    38. Murphy, Deborah L. & Shrieves, Ronald E. & Tibbs, Samuel L., 2009. "Understanding the Penalties Associated with Corporate Misconduct: An Empirical Examination of Earnings and Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 55-83, February.
    39. Gerard Hoberg & Vojislav Maksimovic, 2015. "Redefining Financial Constraints: A Text-Based Analysis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(5), pages 1312-1352.
    40. Viral V Acharya & Sascha Steffen, 2020. "The Risk of Being a Fallen Angel and the Corporate Dash for Cash in the Midst of COVID," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 430-471.
    41. Jeremy C. Stein, 2002. "Information Production and Capital Allocation: Decentralized versus Hierarchical Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1891-1921, October.
    42. Jin-Chuan Duan & Tao Wang, 2012. "Measuring Distance-to-Default for Financial and Non-Financial Firms," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Risk Management Institute, Singapore (ed.), Global Credit Review, chapter 6, pages 95-108, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    43. Jarrell, Gregg & Peltzman, Sam, 1985. "The Impact of Product Recalls on the Wealth of Sellers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(3), pages 512-536, June.
    44. Jin-Chuan Duan & Tao Wang, 2012. "Measuring Distance-to-Default for Financial and Non-Financial Firms," Global Credit Review (GCR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 95-108.
    45. Strebulaev, Ilya A. & Yang, Baozhong, 2013. "The mystery of zero-leverage firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 1-23.
    46. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
    47. Petersen, Mitchell A & Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. "The Benefits of Lending Relationships: Evidence from Small Business Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 3-37, March.
    48. Steven N. Kaplan & Luigi Zingales, 1997. "Do Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Provide Useful Measures of Financing Constraints?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(1), pages 169-215.
    49. Billett, Matthew T & Flannery, Mark J & Garfinkel, Jon A, 1995. "The Effect of Lender Identity on a Borrowing Firm's Equity Return," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 699-718, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Charlene Marie Kalenkoski & Sabrina Wulff Pabilonia, 2022. "Impacts of COVID-19 on the self-employed," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 741-768, February.
    2. Carletti, Elena & Leonello, Agnese & Marquez, Robert, 2023. "Loan guarantees, bank underwriting policies and financial stability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 260-295.
    3. Granja, João & Makridis, Christos & Yannelis, Constantine & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Did the paycheck protection program hit the target?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 725-761.
    4. Lei Li & Philip Strahan, 2020. "Who Supplies PPP Loans (And Does it Matter)? Banks, Relationships and the COVID Crisis," NBER Working Papers 28286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Benjamin Collier & Sabrina T. Howell & Lea Rendell, 2024. "After the Storm: How Emergency Liquidity Helps Small Businesses Following Natural Disasters," Working Papers 24-20, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    6. Karakaplan, Mustafa U., 2021. "This time is really different: The multiplier effect of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) on small business bank loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Duchin, Ran & Martin, Xiumin & Michaely, Roni & Wang, Hanmeng, 2022. "Concierge treatment from banks: Evidence from the paycheck protection program," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    8. Carletti, Elena & Leonello, Agnese & Marquez, Robert, 2023. "Loan guarantees, bank underwriting policies and financial fragility," Working Paper Series 2782, European Central Bank.
    9. Doniger, Cynthia L. & Kay, Benjamin, 2023. "Long-lived employment effects of delays in emergency financing for small businesses," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 78-91.
    10. Wellalage, Nirosha & Reddy, Krishna & Wallace, Damien, 2023. "Environmental performance and the role of government support: Evidence from the recent COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Botsch, Matthew & Vanasco, Victoria, 2019. "Learning by lending," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-14.
    2. Lei Li & Philip Strahan, 2020. "Who Supplies PPP Loans (And Does it Matter)? Banks, Relationships and the COVID Crisis," NBER Working Papers 28286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hasan, Iftekhar & Politsidis, Panagiotis & Sharma, Zenu, 2020. "Bank lending during the COVID-19 pandemic," MPRA Paper 103565, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Rocholl, Jörg & Puri, Manju & Steffen, Sascha, 2011. "On the importance of prior relationships in bank loans to retail customers," Working Paper Series 1395, European Central Bank.
    5. Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel & Darmouni, Olivier & Luck, Stephan & Plosser, Matthew, 2022. "Bank liquidity provision across the firm size distribution," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 908-932.
    6. Rüdiger Fahlenbrach & Kevin Rageth & René M Stulz, 2021. "How Valuable Is Financial Flexibility when Revenue Stops? Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis [The risk of being a fallen angel and the corporate dash for cash in the midst of COVID]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5474-5521.
    7. Keil, Jan, 2023. "Lending relationships when creditors are in control," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Hasan, Iftekhar & Politsidis, Panagiotis N. & Sharma, Zenu, 2021. "Global syndicated lending during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Roddy Allan & Ervi Liusman & Teddy Lu & Desmond Tsang, 2021. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Commercial Property Rent Dynamics," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-24, August.
    10. Fabio Panetta & Fabiano Schivardi & Matthew Shum, 2009. "Do Mergers Improve Information? Evidence from the Loan Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 673-709, June.
    11. Puri, Manju & Rocholl, Jörg, 2008. "On the importance of retail banking relationships," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 253-267, August.
    12. Andrieș, Alin Marius & Ongena, Steven & Sprincean, Nicu, 2021. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Sovereign Bond Risk," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    13. Armanious, Amir & Zhao, Ruoyun, 2024. "Stock liquidity effect on leverage: The role of debt security, financial constraint, and risk around the global financial crisis and Covid-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    14. Omrane Guedhami & April Knill & William L. Megginson & Lemma W. Senbet, 2022. "The dark side of globalization: Evidence from the impact of COVID-19 on multinational companies," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 53(8), pages 1603-1640, October.
    15. Berger, Allen N. & Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli, 2021. "Banking research in the time of COVID-19," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    16. Shu Feng & Chang Liu & Xiaoling Pu, 2022. "Connected Lending in Bank Lines of Credit," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 187-216, April.
    17. Rauf, Asad, 2023. "Bank stability and the price of loan commitments," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    18. Gropp, Reint & Guettler, Andre, 2018. "Hidden gems and borrowers with dirty little secrets: Investment in soft information, borrower self-selection and competition," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 26-39.
    19. Massimiliano Affinito & Raffaele Santioni, 2021. "When the panic broke out: COVID-19 and investment funds' portfolio rebalancing around the world," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1342, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Anna Cororaton & Samuel Rosen, 2021. "Public Firm Borrowers of the U.S. Paycheck Protection Program [The risk of being a fallen angel and the corporate dash for cash in the midst of COVID]," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 641-693.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.