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Notes on Credibility and Stabilization

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  • Rudiger Dornbusch

Abstract

Do existing theories of stabilization help understand the credibility issues involved in such programs? The experience with stabilization in a hyperinflation setting in Israel and Latin America makes it worthwhile to ask how much existing theories help understand the success and failure of these experiments. Theories typically focus on interaction between policy makers and the public, with imperfect information about the true nature of the government and resulting games. But this model often does not help greatly in explaining stabilization. These notes raise some of the questions left unanswered by the traditional modeling of credibility. The first sections deals with stabilization as a one shot problem. This approach is used to ask what "credibility might mean in a world where it is inconceivable that a program will succeed with probability 1. A model is spelled out where the equilibrium program has an ex ante probability of success. The model draws attention to the factors which raise or lower the probability of success of a stabilization program. The next section deals with the problem of waiting which is familiar from the option literature and recent international applications. It is shown here that in the immediate aftermath of stabilization there is a great difficulty in persuading the public to repatriate assets and engage in irreversible investment except at a large premium. But generating that premium is politically difficult.

Suggested Citation

  • Rudiger Dornbusch, 1988. "Notes on Credibility and Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 2790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2790
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
    2. Thomas J. Sargent, 1982. "The Ends of Four Big Inflations," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 41-98, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    4. Persson, Torsten, 1988. "An introduction and a broad survey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(2-3), pages 519-532, March.
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    1. Alesina, Alberto & Drazen, Allan, 1991. "Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1170-1188, December.
    2. Fatima Moura Roque, 1994. "Economic Transformation in Angola," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 62(2), pages 44-57, June.
    3. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1990. "From Stabilization to Growth," NBER Working Papers 3302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Aymo Brunetti & Beatrice Weder, 1994. "Political credibility and economic growth in less developed countries," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 23-43, December.
    5. Steven B. Kamin, 1991. "Exchange rate rules in support of disinflation programs in developing countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 402, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1991. "Should price reform proceed gradually or in a"big bang?"," Policy Research Working Paper Series 702, The World Bank.
    7. Riccardo Faini & Jaime De Melo & Abdelhak Senhadji & Julie Stanton, 2015. "Growth-Oriented Adjustment Programs: A Statistical Analysis," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Developing Countries in the World Economy, chapter 5, pages 125-135, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..

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