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Inflation and the size of government

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  • Song Han
  • Casey B. Mulligan

Abstract

It is commonly supposed in public and academic discourse that inflation and big government are related. We show that economic theory delivers such a prediction only in special cases. As an empirical matter, inflation is significantly positively related to the size of government mainly when periods of war and peace are compared. We find a weak positive peacetime time series correlation between inflation and the size of government and a negative cross-country correlation of inflation with non-defense spending.

Suggested Citation

  • Song Han & Casey B. Mulligan, 2002. "Inflation and the size of government," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2002-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Patrick Enu & Emmanuel Dodzi K. Havi, 2014. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Inflation In Ghana: A Co integration Approach," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(7), pages 95-110, July.
    4. Giovanni Cicceri & Giuseppe Inserra & Michele Limosani, 2020. "A Machine Learning Approach to Forecast Economic Recessions—An Italian Case Study," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-20, February.
    5. Hlaing, Su Wah & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2018. "Financial crisis and financial policy reform: Crisis origins and policy dimensions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 224-243.
    6. Waqar Muhammad Khan & Tahira Ilyas & Aneela Akhtar Chattha, 2023. "Exploring the Drivers of Government Expenditure Patterns in Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 12(4), pages 689-699.
    7. Tai Dang Nguyen, 2016. "Impact Of Government Spending On Inflation In Asian Emerging Economies: Evidence From India, China, And Indonesia," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(05), pages 1171-1200, December.

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    Inflation (Finance);

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