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Broad Bracketing for Low Probability Events

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  • Shereen J. Chaudhry
  • Michael Hand
  • Howard Kunreuther

Abstract

Individuals tend to underprepare for rare, catastrophic events because of biases in risk perception. A simple form of broad bracketing—presenting the cumulative probability of loss over a longer time horizon—has the potential to alleviate these barriers to risk perception and increase protective actions such as purchasing flood insurance. However, it is an open question whether broad bracketing effects last over time: There is evidence that descriptive probability information is ignored when decisions are made from “experience” (repeatedly and in the face of feedback), which describes many protective decisions. Across six incentive-compatible experiments with high stakes, we find that the broad bracketing effect does not disappear or change size when decisions are made from experience. We also advance our understanding of the mechanisms underlying broad bracketing, finding that, while cumulative probability size is a strong driver of the effect, this is dampened for larger brackets which lead people to be less sensitive to probability size.

Suggested Citation

  • Shereen J. Chaudhry & Michael Hand & Howard Kunreuther, 2020. "Broad Bracketing for Low Probability Events," NBER Working Papers 27319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27319
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Howard Kunreuther, 2020. "Risk Management Solutions for Climate Change–Induced Disasters," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2263-2271, November.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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