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Estimating Probabilities of Success of Vaccine and Other Anti-Infective Therapeutic Development Programs

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Listed:
  • Andrew W. Lo
  • Kien Wei Siah
  • Chi Heem Wong

Abstract

A key driver in biopharmaceutical investment decisions is the probability of success of a drug development program. We estimate the probabilities of success (PoSs) of clinical trials for vaccines and other anti-infective therapeutics using 43,414 unique triplets of clinical trial, drug, and disease between January 1, 2000, and January 7, 2020, yielding 2,544 vaccine programs and 6,829 nonvaccine programs targeting infectious diseases. The overall estimated PoS for an industry-sponsored vaccine program is 39.6%, and 16.3% for an industry-sponsored anti-infective therapeutic. Among industry-sponsored vaccines programs, only 12 out of 27 disease categories have seen at least one approval, with the most successful being against monkeypox (100%), rotavirus (78.7%), and Japanese encephalitis (67.6%). The three infectious diseases with the highest PoSs for industry-sponsored nonvaccine therapeutics are smallpox (100%), cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection (31.8%), and onychomycosis (29.8%). Non-industry-sponsored vaccine and nonvaccine development programs have lower overall PoSs: 6.8% and 8.2%, respectively. Viruses involved in recent outbreaks—Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Ebola, and Zika—have had a combined total of only 45 nonvaccine development programs initiated over the past two decades, and no approved therapy to date. These estimates offer guidance both to biopharma investors as well as to policymakers seeking to identify areas most likely to be underserved by private sector engagement and in need of public sector support.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew W. Lo & Kien Wei Siah & Chi Heem Wong, 2020. "Estimating Probabilities of Success of Vaccine and Other Anti-Infective Therapeutic Development Programs," NBER Working Papers 27176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27176
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    Cited by:

    1. Rachel Glennerster & Christopher M. Snyder & Brandon Joel Tan, 2023. "Calculating the Costs and Benefits of Advance Preparations for Future Pandemics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 611-648, September.
    2. Snyder, Christopher M. & Hoyt, Kendall & Gouglas, Dimitrios, 2023. "An optimal mechanism to fund the development of vaccines against emerging epidemics," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Donald A. Berry & Scott Berry & Peter Hale & Leah Isakov & Andrew W. Lo & Kien Wei Siah & Chi Heem Wong, 2020. "A Cost/Benefit Analysis of Clinical Trial Designs for COVID-19 Vaccine Candidates," NBER Working Papers 27882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Qingyang Xu & Elaheh Ahmadi & Alexander Amini & Daniela Rus & Andrew W. Lo, 2022. "Identifying and Mitigating Potential Biases in Predicting Drug Approvals," Drug Safety, Springer, vol. 45(5), pages 521-533, May.
    5. Lo, Andrew W. & Thakor, Richard T., 2023. "Financial intermediation and the funding of biomedical innovation: A review," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Volker Grossmann, 2021. "Medical Innovations and Ageing: A Health Economics Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 9387, CESifo.
    7. Massimo Florio & Chiara Pancotti, 2022. "European pharmaceutical research and development. Could a public infrastructure overcome market failures?," Working Papers 202202, CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • I13 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Insurance, Public and Private
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • L65 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Chemicals; Rubber; Drugs; Biotechnology; Plastics

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