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Drivers of the Great Housing Boom-Bust: Credit Conditions, Beliefs, or Both?

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  • Josue Cox
  • Sydney C. Ludvigson

Abstract

Two potential driving forces of house price fluctuations are commonly cited: credit conditions and beliefs. We posit some simple empirical calculations using direct measures of credit conditions and beliefs to consider their potentially distinct roles in house price fluctuations at the aggregate level. Changes in credit conditions are positively related to the fraction of riskier non-conforming debt in total mortgage lending, while measures of beliefs are unrelated to this ratio. Credit conditions explain quantitatively large magnitudes of the variation in quarterly house price growth and also predict future house price growth. Beliefs bear some relation to contemporaneous house price growth but have little predictive power. A structural VAR analysis implies that shocks to credit conditions have quantitatively important dynamic causal effects on house price changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Josue Cox & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2018. "Drivers of the Great Housing Boom-Bust: Credit Conditions, Beliefs, or Both?," NBER Working Papers 25285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25285
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Wohar, Mark E., 2023. "Is there a national housing market bubble brewing in the United States?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(8), pages 2191-2228, December.
    2. Yunus Aksoy & Henrique S. Basso & Carolyn St Aubyn, 2019. "Time Variation in Lifecycle Consumption and Income," BCAM Working Papers 1904, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    3. Itzhak Ben-David & Pascal Towbin & Sebastian Weber, 2019. "Inferring Expectations from Observables: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 25702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E7 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • R0 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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