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Investment Tax Incentives and Frequent Tax Reforms

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  • Alan J. Auerbach
  • James R. Hines Jr.

Abstract

Despite the frequency of tax changes and their potential importance to investors, almost all of the analysis of tax-based investment incentives assumes investors never anticipate any tax changes. We depart from this approach by analyzing the historical pattern of U.S. corporate investment incentives over the period 1953-86, incorporating the feature of investor awareness that the tax code may change. Our analysis incorporates a predictive equation for future tax variables into a model of optimal investment subject to adjustment costs and uncertainty. We find that expectations of future tax changes significantly affect the incentive to invest only if adjustment costs are low. In this case, the incentive to invest in 1986 was strong, as investors are estimated to have anticipated the coming reduction in investment incentives.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan J. Auerbach & James R. Hines Jr., 1988. "Investment Tax Incentives and Frequent Tax Reforms," NBER Working Papers 2492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2492
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. King, Mervyn A. & Fullerton, Don, 2010. "The Taxation of Income from Capital," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226436319.
    2. Auerbach, Alan J, 1989. "Tax Reform and Adjustment Costs: The Impact on Investment and Market Value," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(4), pages 939-962, November.
    3. Alan J. Auerbach, 1983. "Corporate Taxation in the United States," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(2), pages 451-514.
    4. Alan J. Auerbach & James R. Hines, Jr., 1987. "Anticipated Tax Changes and the Timing of Investment," NBER Chapters, in: The Effects of Taxation on Capital Accumulation, pages 163-200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Andrew B. Abel, 1983. "Tax Neutrality in the Presence of Adjustment Costs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(4), pages 705-712.
    6. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
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