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The Complexity of Liquidity: The Extraordinary Case of Sovereign Bonds

Author

Listed:
  • Jacob Boudoukh
  • Jordan Brooks
  • Matthew Richardson
  • Zhikai Xu

Abstract

It is well-documented that government bonds with almost identical cash flows can trade at different prices. The explanation is that due to higher liquidity the most recently issued bond tends to trade at a premium to previously issued bonds. This paper analyzes the cross-section of bond spreads across developed countries over a 17-year time period. Indeed, liquidity has commonality across countries in the expected direction. However, the paper documents a novel finding that questions the standard view of liquidity. Under certain conditions, especially related to credit deterioration and flight to quality, new issue bond spreads tighten and can be negative. In other words, the liquid bonds become cheaper, not more expensive, relative to their less liquid counterparts. We offer an explanation based on price pressure and provide empirical support using data on net flows of investors in sovereign bonds. Of some interest, we are able to reconcile the differential behavior of bond spreads of the U.S. and Germany versus Belgium, Spain and Italy during the Eurozone crisis period.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacob Boudoukh & Jordan Brooks & Matthew Richardson & Zhikai Xu, 2016. "The Complexity of Liquidity: The Extraordinary Case of Sovereign Bonds," NBER Working Papers 22576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22576
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Ehsan Ebrahimy, 2019. "Fire Sales in Frozen Markets," IMF Working Papers 2019/092, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Demir Bektić & Britta Hachenberg & Dirk Schiereck, 2020. "Factor-based investing in government bond markets: a survey of the current state of research," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(2), pages 94-105, March.
    3. Ebrahimy, Ehsan, 2019. "Fire-sales in frozen markets," ESRB Working Paper Series 100, European Systemic Risk Board.

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    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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