IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/22521.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Rise in Life Expectancy, Health Trends among the Elderly, and the Demand for Care - A Selected Literature Review

Author

Listed:
  • Bjorn Lindgren

Abstract

The objective is to review the evidence on (a) ageing and health and (b) the demand for health- and social services among the elderly. Issues are: does health status of the elderly improve over time, and how do the trends in health status of the elderly affect the demand for health- and elderly care? It is not a complete review, but it covers most of recent empirical studies. The reviewed literature provides strong evidence that the prevalence of chronic disease among the elderly has increased over time. There is also fairly strong evidence that the consequences of disease have become less problematic due to medical progress: decreased mortality risk, milder and slower development over time, making the time with disease (and health-care treatment) longer but less troublesome than before. Evidence also suggests the postponement of functional limitations and disability. Some of the reduction in disability can be attributed to improvements in treatments of chronic diseases, but it is also due to the increased use of assistive technology, accessibility of buildings, etc. The results indicate that the ageing individual is expected to need health care for a longer period of time than previous generations but elderly care for a shorter.

Suggested Citation

  • Bjorn Lindgren, 2016. "The Rise in Life Expectancy, Health Trends among the Elderly, and the Demand for Care - A Selected Literature Review," NBER Working Papers 22521, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22521
    Note: EH
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w22521.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. van Doorslaer, Eddy & Gerdtham, Ulf-G., 2003. "Does inequality in self-assessed health predict inequality in survival by income? Evidence from Swedish data," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 57(9), pages 1621-1629, November.
    2. Vicki Freedman & Brenda Spillman & Patti Andreski & Jennifer Cornman & Eileen Crimmins & Ellen Kramarow & James Lubitz & Linda Martin & Sharon Merkin & Robert Schoeni & Teresa Seeman & Timothy Waidman, 2013. "Trends in Late-Life Activity Limitations in the United States: An Update From Five National Surveys," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(2), pages 661-671, April.
    3. Felder, Stefan & Meier, Markus & Schmitt, Horst, 2000. "Health care expenditure in the last months of life," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 679-695, September.
    4. Baoping Shang & Dana Goldman, 2008. "Does age or life expectancy better predict health care expenditures?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 487-501, April.
    5. Dov Chernichovsky & Sara Markowitz, 2004. "Aging and aggregate costs of medical care: conceptual and policy issues," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(6), pages 543-562, June.
    6. David A. Wise, 2014. "Discoveries in the Economics of Aging," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number wise13-1, January.
    7. Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Markus Meiers, 1999. "Ageing of population and health care expenditure: a red herring?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(6), pages 485-496, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Leandro Prados de la Escosura, 2018. "Well-being Inequality in the Long Run," Working Papers 0131, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    2. Prados de la Escosura, Leandro, 2023. "Health, income, and the preston curve: A long view," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    3. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in Aging Societies: Evidence from Euro Area Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
    4. Leandro Prados de la Escosura, 2023. "Inequality Beyond GDP: A Long View," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(3), pages 533-554, September.
    5. Harpa S. Eyjólfsdóttir & Neda Agahi & Johan Fritzell & Carin Lennartsson, 2022. "Physical functioning as a predictor of retirement: Has its importance changed over a thirty-year period in Sweden?," European Journal of Ageing, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 1417-1428, December.
    6. Leandro Prados de la Escosura, 2021. "Augmented human development in the age of globalization," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(4), pages 946-975, November.
    7. Heger, Dörte & Kolodziej, Ingo W.K., 2016. "Changes in morbidity over time: Evidence from Europe," Ruhr Economic Papers 640, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Lassila, Jukka & Valkonen, Tarmo, 2019. "Alternative Demography-based Projection Approaches for Public Health and Long-term Care Expenditure," ETLA Working Papers 74, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    9. Isabel Correia Dias & Priscila Ferreira & Lígia Costa Pinto & Marieta Valente & Paula Veiga, 2017. "Growing old, unhealthy and unequal: an exploratory study on the health of Portuguese individuals aged 50+," NIMA Working Papers 67, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho, revised Jun 2018.
    10. Keegan, Conor & Brick, Aoife & Bergin, Adele & Wren, Maev-Ann & Whyte, Richard & Henry, Edward, 2020. "Projections of expenditure for public hospitals in Ireland, 2018–2035, based on the Hippocrates Model," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS117.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lindgren, Björn, 2016. "The Rise in Life Expectancy, Health Trends among the Elderly, and the Demand for Health and Social Care," Working Papers 142, National Institute of Economic Research.
    2. Felder, Stefan & Werblow, Andreas & Zweifel, Peter, 2010. "Do red herrings swim in circles? Controlling for the endogeneity of time to death," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 205-212, March.
    3. Friedrich Breyer & Normann Lorenz, 2021. "The “red herring” after 20 years: ageing and health care expenditures," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(5), pages 661-667, July.
    4. repec:ces:ifodic:v:11:y:2013:i:1:p:19078503 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang & Wang, David Han-Min & Wu, Kuo-Lun, 2015. "Reexamining the red herring effect on healthcare expenditures," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 783-787.
    6. Stefan Felder, 2013. "The Impact of Demographic Change on Healthcare Expenditure," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(01), pages 03-06, April.
    7. Caravaggio, Nicola & Resce, Giuliano, 2023. "Enhancing Healthcare Cost Forecasting: A Machine Learning Model for Resource Allocation in Heterogeneous Regions," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp23090, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    8. Breyer Friedrich, 2015. "Demographischer Wandel und Gesundheitsausgaben: Theorie, Empirie und Politikimplikationen," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 16(3), pages 215-230, October.
    9. Andreas Werblow & Stefan Felder & Peter Zweifel, 2007. "Population ageing and health care expenditure: a school of 'red herrings'?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(10), pages 1109-1126.
    10. Stefan Felder, 2013. "The Impact of Demographic Change on Healthcare Expenditure," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(1), pages 03-06, 04.
    11. Fabio Pammolli & Francesco Porcelli & Francesco Vidoli & Monica Auteri & Guido Borà, 2017. "La spesa sanitaria delle Regioni in Italia - Saniregio2017," Working Papers CERM 01-2017, Competitività, Regole, Mercati (CERM).
    12. Schulz, Erika & Leidl, Reiner & Konig, Hans-Helmut, 2004. "The impact of ageing on hospital care and long-term care--the example of Germany," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 57-74, January.
    13. Stefan Felder, 2006. "Lebenserwartung, medizinischer Fortschritt und Gesundheitsausgaben: Theorie und Empirie," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(s1), pages 49-73, May.
    14. Maurizio Bussolo & Johannes Koettl & Emily Sinnott, 2015. "Golden Aging," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 22018.
    15. Mauro Laudicella & Paolo Li Donni & Kim Rose Olsen & Dorte Gyrd‐Hansen, 2022. "Age, morbidity, or something else? A residual approach using microdata to measure the impact of technological progress on health care expenditure," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 1184-1201, June.
    16. Edward Norton & Hua Wang & Sally Stearns, 2006. "Behavioral Implications of Out-of-Pocket Health Care Expenditures," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 142(V), pages 3-11.
    17. S. P. Thi颡ut & T. Barnay & B. Ventelou, 2013. "Ageing, chronic conditions and the evolution of future drugs expenditure: a five-year micro-simulation from 2004 to 2029," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(13), pages 1663-1672, May.
    18. Kyung‐Rae Hyun & Sungwook Kang & Sunmi Lee, 2016. "Population Aging and Healthcare Expenditure in Korea," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(10), pages 1239-1251, October.
    19. Heger, Dörte & Kolodziej, Ingo W.K., 2016. "Changes in morbidity over time: Evidence from Europe," Ruhr Economic Papers 640, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    20. Murphy, Michael & Martikainen, Pekka, 2013. "Use of hospital and long-term institutional care services in relation to proximity to death among older people in Finland," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 39-47.
    21. Norton, E.C., 2016. "Health and Long-Term Care," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 951-989, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22521. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.