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Ageing, chronic conditions and the evolution of future drugs expenditure: a five-year micro-simulation from 2004 to 2029

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  • S. P. Thi颡ut
  • T. Barnay
  • B. Ventelou

Abstract

The healthy ageing assumptions may lead to substantial changes in paths of aggregate health care expenditure, notably catastrophic expenditure of people at the end of the life. But clear assessments of involved amounts are not available when we specifically consider ambulatory care (as drug expenditure) generally offered to chronically-ill people. We estimate the effects of epidemiological and life expectancy changes on French health expenditure until 2029 by applying a Markovian micro-simulation model from a nationally representative database. The originality of these simulations holds in using an aggregate indicator of morbidity--mortality, capturing vital risk and making it possible to adapt the quantification of life expectancies by taking into account the presence of severe chronic pathologies. We forecast future national drugs expenditure, under different epidemiological scenarios of chronic morbidity: trend scenario, healthy ageing scenario and medical progress scenario . For the population aged 25+, results predict an increase in reimbursable drug expenditure of between 1.1% and 1.8% (annual growth rate), attributable solely to the ageing population and changes in health status.

Suggested Citation

  • S. P. Thi颡ut & T. Barnay & B. Ventelou, 2013. "Ageing, chronic conditions and the evolution of future drugs expenditure: a five-year micro-simulation from 2004 to 2029," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(13), pages 1663-1672, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:45:y:2013:i:13:p:1663-1672
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2011.633895
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    2. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of population ageing on economic growth: an in-depth bibliometric analysis," FEP Working Papers 505, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    3. Phill O’Neill & Jorge Mestre-Ferrandiz & Ruth Puig-Peiro & Jon Sussex, 2013. "Projecting Expenditure on Medicines in the UK NHS," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 31(10), pages 933-957, October.
    4. Idaira Rodriguez Santana & María José Aragón & Nigel Rice & Anne Rosemary Mason, 2020. "Trends in and drivers of healthcare expenditure in the English NHS: a retrospective analysis," Health Economics Review, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Charlotte Geay & Grégoire de Lagasnerie & Makram Larguem, 2015. "Intégrer les dépenses de santé dans un modèle de microsimulation dynamique : le cas des dépenses de soins de ville," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 481(1), pages 211-234.
    6. Shangmei Zhao & Jiang He & Haijun Yang, 2018. "Population Ageing, Financial Deepening and Economic Growth: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Thach Ngoc Pham & Duc Hong Vo, 2021. "Aging Population and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Quantile Regression Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 108-122, January.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5cg3fnvgpv8u5peaglp6lrkkaq is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A. C. Teixeira & Sandra Silva, 2017. "The Impact Of Population Ageing On Economic Growth: A Bibliometric Survey," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(02), pages 275-296, June.
    10. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5cg3fnvgpv8u5peaglp6lrkkaq is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Paula M. Murray & Yusuf A. Shalaby & Luciano Ieraci & Emmett Borg & Daphne Sniekers & Ali Vahit Esensoy & Jessica Arias, 2020. "Forecasting Ontario Oncology Drug Expenditures: A Hybrid Approach to Improving Accuracy," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 127-137, February.
    12. Anne Mason & Idaira Rodriguez Santana & María José Aragón & Nigel Rice & Martin Chalkley & Raphael Wittenberg & Jose-Luis Fernandez, 2019. "Drivers of health care expenditure: Final report," Working Papers 169cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.

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