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How Japan and the US Can Reduce the Stress of Aging

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  • Claudia Goldin

Abstract

The Japanese are becoming older. Americans are also becoming older. Demographic stress in Japan, measured by the dependency ratio (DR), is currently about 0.64. In the immediate pre-WWII era it was even higher because Japan’s total fertility rate (TFR) was in the 4 to 5 range. As the TFR began to decline in the post-WWII era, the DR fell and hit a nadir of 0.44 in 1990. But further declining fertility and rising life expectancy caused the DR to shoot up after 1995. In this short note I simulate the DR under various conditions and make comparisons with the US. Japan has experienced a large increase in its DR because its fertility rate is low, its people are long lived and it has little immigration. Fertility is the largest of the contributors in Japan. If there are no demographic changes in Japan, the DR will be 0.88 by 2050. I also assess the role of the “baby boom” of the late 1940s and show that it was compensatory, unlike that in the US. The good news is that healthier older longer-lived people will continue to be employed for many more years than previously and that is one way to reduce demographic stress.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudia Goldin, 2016. "How Japan and the US Can Reduce the Stress of Aging," NBER Working Papers 22445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22445
    Note: AG DAE LS
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James Feyrer & Bruce Sacerdote & Ariel Dora Stern, 2008. "Will the Stork Return to Europe and Japan? Understanding Fertility within Developed Nations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 3-22, Summer.
    2. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Louise M. Sheiner, 2000. "Should America Save for Its Old Age? Fiscal Policy, Population Aging, and National Saving," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 57-74, Summer.
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    Cited by:

    1. Congjia Huo & Guoan Xiao & Lingming Chen, 2021. "The crowding-out effect of elderly support expenditure on household consumption from the perspective of population aging: evidence from China," Frontiers of Business Research in China, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 1-20, December.
    2. Li-Hsueh Chen & Zhen Cui, 2017. "Jobless Recovery and Structural Change: A VAR Approach," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 6(1), pages 1-26, June.
    3. Edward Martey, 2022. "Blessing or Burden: The Elderly and Household Welfare in Ghana," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 803-827, July.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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