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What Makes US Government Bonds Safe Assets?

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  • Zhiguo He
  • Arvind Krishnamurthy
  • Konstantin Milbradt

Abstract

US government bonds are widely considered to be the world’s safe store of value. US government bonds are a large fraction of safe asset portfolios, such as the porfolios of many central banks. The world demand for safe assets leads to low yields on US Treasury bonds. During periods of economic turmoil, such as the events of 2008, these yields fall even further. Moreover, despite the fact that US government debt has risen substantially relative to US GDP over the last decade, US government bond yields have not risen. What makes US government bonds “safe assets”? Our answer in short is that safe asset investors have nowhere else to go but invest in US government bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Konstantin Milbradt, 2016. "What Makes US Government Bonds Safe Assets?," NBER Working Papers 22017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2012. "The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 233-267.
    2. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-393, March.
    3. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2009. "Global Imbalances and Financial Fragility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 584-588, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stracca, Livio & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2020. "The fundamentals of safe assets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    2. Ly Dai Hung, 2022. "Safe Assets at Financial Globalization," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(03), pages 1-21, October.
    3. Ly Dai Hung, 2020. "Public Safe Assets Determination," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 350-368, October.
    4. Luo, Yuwei & Mei, Dongzhou, 2023. "The shortage of safe assets and China's housing boom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    5. Fleckenstein, Matthias & Longstaff, Francis A., 2020. "The US Treasury floating rate note puzzle: Is there a premium for mark-to-market stability?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 637-658.
    6. Chase P. Ross, 2022. "The Collateral Premium and Levered Safe-Asset Production," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-046, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Robert N McCauley, 2019. "Safe assets: made, not just born," BIS Working Papers 769, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Kadırgan, Can, 2023. "Exchange rate driven balance sheet effect and capital flows to emerging market economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 35-45.
    9. Víctor M. Gómez‐Blanco, 2024. "A safe asset in early modern Castile, 1543–1714," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 77(1), pages 212-243, February.
    10. Glick, Reuven, 2020. "r* and the global economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    11. van Riet, Ad, 2017. "Addressing the safety trilemma: a safe sovereign asset for the eurozone," ESRB Working Paper Series 35, European Systemic Risk Board.
    12. repec:ecb:ecbdps:20174 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Eichengreen, Barry & Macaire, Camille & Mehl, Arnaud & Monnet, Eric & Naef, Alain, 2022. "Is Capital Account Convertibility Required for the Renminbi to Acquire Reserve Currency Status?," CEPR Discussion Papers 17498, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Gary B. Gorton, 2016. "The History and Economics of Safe Assets," NBER Working Papers 22210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Canhui Hong, 2018. "Flight-to-quality debt crises," 2018 Meeting Papers 166, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Feng Dong & Yi Wen, 2017. "Flight to What? — Dissecting Liquidity Shortages in the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2017-25, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    17. Aizenman, Joshua & Cheung, Yin-Wong & Qian, XingWang, 2020. "The currency composition of international reserves, demand for international reserves, and global safe assets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    18. Dick Bryan & David Harvie & Mike Rafferty & Bruno Tinel, 2020. "Ch 13: The Financialized State," Post-Print halshs-02955815, HAL.
    19. Cortes, Gustavo S. & Gao, George P. & Silva, Felipe B.G. & Song, Zhaogang, 2022. "Unconventional monetary policy and disaster risk: Evidence from the subprime and COVID–19 crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    20. Ly-Dai, Hung, 2018. "Public Safe Assets Determination," MPRA Paper 90237, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2018.
    21. Dick Bryan & David Harvie & Mike Rafferty & Bruno Tinel, 2020. "Ch 13: The Financialized State," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-02955815, HAL.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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