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Currency internationalization with Chinese characteristics: Is capital‐account convertibility required for the renminbi to acquire reserve‐currency status?

Author

Listed:
  • Barry Eichengreen

    (UC Berkeley - University of California [Berkeley] - UC - University of California, NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research [New York] - NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Camille Macaire

    (Banque de France - Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Arnaud Mehl

    (European Central Bank - European Central Bank, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Eric Monnet

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Alain Naef

    (ESSEC Business School, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université)

Abstract

It is widely assumed that the renminbi (RMB) cannot acquire a meaningful place in central bank reserve portfolios without full liberalization of China's capital account. We argue that the RMB can in fact develop into an international reserve currency in the absence of capital‐account convertibility. Trade and investment links can drive use despite limited access to Chinese financial markets. But this route to currency internationalization requires policy support. China must provide access to RMB through loans and the People's Bank of China (PBoC) currency swaps. It must ensure the convertibility of RMB into US dollars in offshore markets. It must provide RMB services at a stable and predictable price. Currency internationalization without full capital‐account liberalization thus requires the RMB to be backed by dollar reserves, which the PBoC consequently will continue to hold and use. Hence, we do not foresee RMB internationalization as supplanting dollar dominance.

Suggested Citation

  • Barry Eichengreen & Camille Macaire & Arnaud Mehl & Eric Monnet & Alain Naef, 2024. "Currency internationalization with Chinese characteristics: Is capital‐account convertibility required for the renminbi to acquire reserve‐currency status?," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-04814111, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-04814111
    DOI: 10.1111/infi.12447
    as

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