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Propogation of Shocks in a High-Inflation Economy: Israel, 1980-85

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  • Leonardo Leiderman
  • Assaf Razin

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to provide empirical answers to questions related to the propagation of shocks in a high-inflation economy. Do one-time inflationary shocks give rise to long-term persistence, or inertia? Do balance of payments' shocks trigger a process that, through indexation and monetary accommodation, results in long-term changes in inflation? Within the context of a specific hypothesis, influential both in policy discussions and in economic analyses, the paper addresses these issues using Israeli data and vector-autoregression techniques. The evidence does not support the hypothesis that one-time nominal shocks have a persistent effect on the inflation rate, or the hypothesis that long-term changes in inflation are triggered by autonomous fluctuations in the trade balance.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Leiderman & Assaf Razin, 1986. "Propogation of Shocks in a High-Inflation Economy: Israel, 1980-85," NBER Working Papers 2003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Litterman, Robert B & Weiss, Laurence M, 1985. "Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(1), pages 129-156, January.
    2. Thomas J. Sargent, 1982. "The Ends of Four Big Inflations," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 41-98, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1986. "Stopping hyperinflations past and present," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 122(1), pages 1-47, March.
    4. Robert E. Hall, 1982. "Inflation: Causes and Effects," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number hall82-1, June.
    5. Helpman, Elhanan & Razin, Assaf, 1987. "Exchange Rate Management: Intertemporal Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 107-123, March.
    6. Stanley W. Black, 1983. "The Use of Monetary Policy for Internal and External Balance in Ten Industrial Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 189-234, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Steven D. Pizer & Austin B. Frakt & Roger Feldman, 2008. "Predicting risk selection following major changes in medicare," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 453-468, April.

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