IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-03585877.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Crise financière, inflation et Currency Board en Bulgarie : les leçons d'une transition indisciplinée

Author

Listed:
  • Jérôme Sgard

    (CERI - Centre de recherches internationales (Sciences Po, CNRS) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The Bulgarian transition since 1991 was marked by two huge "financial pyramids" which erupted into the 1996-1997 crisis. From January to September 1996, there was an open banking panic, followed by a fiscal and public debt crisis due to ever rising interest payments, the sudden drop in the real value of tax revenues, and widespread expectations that the country would default on its foreign debt. This led to a quasi- hyperinflation in January and February 1997, followed by a remarkably fast stabilization. These different phases are analyzed, including from a political economy viewpoint; an assessment is then made of the Currency Board set up on July,l 1997. Attention is drawn to the importance of quantitative and expectational factors, which mark this period as "monetarist", in contrast with the inertia of inflation in Latin America, for example, where individual and collective mechanisms of defence against inflation are much stronger. This situation is evidence that the Bulgarian economy has weak social and institutional underpinnings, a situation typical of the undisciplined transitions in the Balkans and former USSR.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Sgard, 1999. "Crise financière, inflation et Currency Board en Bulgarie : les leçons d'une transition indisciplinée," Post-Print hal-03585877, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03585877
    DOI: 10.3406/receo.1999.2979
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03585877
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03585877/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3406/receo.1999.2979?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas J. Sargent, 1982. "The Ends of Four Big Inflations," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 41-98, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Michael Bruno & Guido Di Tella & Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1988. "Inflation Stabilization: The Experience of Israel, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, and Mexico," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022796, April.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6982 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Jérôme Sgard, 1998. "Inflation, stabilisation et prix relatifs en Argentine et au Brésil," Post-Print hal-03585833, HAL.
    6. Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1986. "Stopping hyperinflations past and present," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 122(1), pages 1-47, March.
    7. Mr. Charles Enoch & Mr. Tomás J. T. Baliño, 1997. "Currency Board Arrangements: Issues and Experiences," IMF Occasional Papers 1997/005, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Robert E. Hall, 1982. "Inflation: Causes and Effects," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number hall82-1.
    9. Kent Osband & Delano Villanueva, 1993. "Independent Currency Authorities: An Analytic Primer," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 202-216, March.
    10. Roumen Avramov & Jérôme Sgard, 1996. "Bulgaria : from enterprise indiscipline to financial crisis," Post-Print hal-03567589, HAL.
    11. John Williamson, 1995. "What Role of Currency Boards?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa40, April.
    12. Jérôme Sgard, 1998. "Inflation, stabilisation et prix relatifs en Argentine et au Brésil : l'expérience des années quatre-vingt-dix," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 49(1), pages 239-256.
    13. Schwartz, Anna J., 1993. "Currency boards: their past, present, and possible future role," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 147-187, December.
    14. Roumen Avramov & Jérôme Sgard, 1996. "Bulgaria from Enterprise Indiscipline to Financial Crisis," Working Papers 1996-10, CEPII research center.
    15. Rudiger Dornbusch & Ferico Sturzenegger & Holger Wolf, 1990. "Extreme Inflation: Dynamics and Stabilization," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 1-84.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6961 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6961 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jérôme Sgard, 1999. "Crise financière, inflation et Currency Board en Bulgarie : les leçons d'une transition indisciplinée," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03585877, HAL.
    4. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6982 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jérôme Sgard, 1998. "Inflation, stabilisation et prix relatifs en Argentine et au Brésil," Post-Print hal-03585833, HAL.
    7. Jérôme Sgard, 1998. "Inflation, stabilisation et prix relatifs en Argentine et au Brésil : l'expérience des années quatre-vingt-dix," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 49(1), pages 239-256.
    8. Jérôme Sgard, 1998. "Inflation, stabilisation et prix relatifs en Argentine et au Brésil," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03585833, HAL.
    9. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6982 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ardo H. Hansson, 1991. "The Emergence and Stabilization of Extreme Inflationary Pressures in the Soviet Union," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-1991-093, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/4vc7skecu3q7u7s984pi2eaan is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Emilio Ocampo, 2021. "A Brief History of Hyperinflation in Argentina," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 787, Universidad del CEMA.
    13. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2016. "From Chronic Inflation to Chronic Deflation: Focusing on Expectations and Liquidity Disarray Since WWII," NBER Working Papers 22535, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4vc7skecu3q7u7s984pi2eaan is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4vc7skecu3q7u7s984pi2eaan is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Wolf, Holger C., 2001. "Inflation and stabilization in Latvia: 1918-1922," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 33-50, March.
    17. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/4vc7skecu3q7u7s984pi2eaan is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Jérôme Sgard, 2010. "Money Reconstructed: Argentina and Brazil after Hyperinflation," Working Papers hal-00972721, HAL.
    19. Bordo, Michael D. & Jonung, Lars, 1994. "Monetary Regimes, Inflation and Monetary Reform: An Essay in Honor of Axel Leijonhufvud," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 16, Stockholm School of Economics.
    20. Burdekin, Richard C. K. & Burkett, Paul, 1996. "Hyperinflation, the exchange rate and endogenous money: post-World War I Germany revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 599-621, August.
    21. Alesina, Alberto & Drazen, Allan, 1991. "Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1170-1188, December.
    22. Williamson, Stephen D., 2018. "Can the fiscal authority constrain the central bank?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 154-172.
    23. repec:cbk:journl:v:2:y:2013:i:2:p:71-84 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Neven Valev, 2000. "Building Monetary Credibility in a Transforming Economy," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0212, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    25. Vittorio Corbo & Stanley Fischer, "undated". "Lessons from the Chilean Stabilization and Recovery," Documentos de Trabajo 158, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    26. Buiter, Willem H., 2007. "Seigniorage," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-49.
    27. SL Mollentze, 2002. "The Suitability Of A Currency Board For An Emerging Market Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 70(1), pages 1-28, March.
    28. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
    29. Farley Grubb, 2003. "Two Theories of Money Reconciled: The Colonial Puzzle Revisited with New Evidence," Working Papers 03-03, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03585877. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.