IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/19515.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do People Overreact? Evidence from the Housing Market After the Wenchuan Earthquake

Author

Listed:
  • Guoying Deng
  • Li Gan
  • Manuel A. Hernandez

Abstract

This paper uses the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China as a natural experiment to examine how the housing market reacted to this unforeseen, extreme event. We use a unique transaction dataset for new (under construction) apartment units to analyze the pricing behavior of units in lower versus upper floors before and after the earthquake. We observe that average housing prices decreased after the tremor. However, the relative price of low to high floor units, particularly units located in the first and second floor, considerably increased for several months after the earthquake. This relative pricing pattern is in line with a higher risk perception and fear, triggered after the tremor, of living in upper floors. Additional robustness checks support the apparent overreaction of individuals to a dramatic event.

Suggested Citation

  • Guoying Deng & Li Gan & Manuel A. Hernandez, 2013. "Do People Overreact? Evidence from the Housing Market After the Wenchuan Earthquake," NBER Working Papers 19515, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19515
    Note: AG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w19515.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    2. Nakagawa, Masayuki & Saito, Makoto & Yamaga, Hisaki, 2007. "Earthquake risk and housing rents: Evidence from the Tokyo Metropolitan Area," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 87-99, January.
    3. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    4. Masayuki Nakagawa & Makoto Saito & Hisaki Yamaga, 2009. "Earthquake Risks And Land Prices: Evidence From The Tokyo Metropolitan Area," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 60(2), pages 208-222, June.
    5. Raymond M. Brooks & Ajay Patel & Tie Su, 2003. "How the Equity Market Responds to Unanticipated Events," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(1), pages 109-134, January.
    6. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Abadie, Alberto & Dermisi, Sofia, 2008. "Is terrorism eroding agglomeration economies in Central Business Districts? Lessons from the office real estate market in downtown Chicago," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 451-463, September.
    8. Wong, Grace, 2008. "Has SARS infected the property market Evidence from Hong Kong," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 74-95, January.
    9. Chopra, Navin & Lakonishok, Josef & Ritter, Jay R., 1992. "Measuring abnormal performance : Do stocks overreact?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 235-268, April.
    10. James C. Murdoch & Harinder Singh & Mark Thayer, 1993. "The Impact of Natural Hazards on Housing Values: The Loma Prieta Earthquake," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(2), pages 167-184, June.
    11. Viscusi, W Kip, 1989. "Prospective Reference Theory: Toward an Explanation of the Paradoxes," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 235-263, September.
    12. Benson, Earl D & Hansen, Julia L. & Schwartz Jr., Arthur & Smersh, Greg T., 1998. "Pricing Residential Amenities: The Value of a View," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 55-73, January.
    13. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. "How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-1191, September.
    14. Glaeser, Edward L & Gyourko, Joseph & Saks, Raven, 2005. "Why Is Manhattan So Expensive? Regulation and the Rise in Housing Prices," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(2), pages 331-369, October.
    15. Ederington, Louis H. & Lee, Jae Ha, 1995. "The Short-Run Dynamics of the Price Adjustment to New Information," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 117-134, March.
    16. Qi Li & Jeffrey Scott Racine, 2006. "Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8355.
    17. Okmyung Biny & Stephen Polasky, 2004. "Effects of Flood Hazards on Property Values: Evidence Before and After Hurricane Floyd," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 80(4).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tsai, Pei-Hsuan & Wang, Ying-Wei & Chang, Wen-Chang, 2023. "Hybrid MADM-based study of key risk factors in house-for-pension reverse mortgage lending in Taiwan's banking industry," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    2. Yuming Fu & Song Shi, 2022. "Barriers to urban spatial development: Evidence from the 2010–2011 Christchurch earthquakes," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 218-245, January.
    3. Zhou, Zhengyi, 2016. "Overreaction to policy changes in the housing market: Evidence from Shanghai," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 26-41.
    4. Matthew A. Cole & Robert J R Elliott & Toshihiro Okubo & Eric Strobl, 2014. "Natural Disasters and the Birth, Life and Death of Plants: The Case of the Kobe Earthquake," Working Papers 2014-114, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Deng, Guoying & Gan, Li & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2015. "Do natural disasters cause an excessive fear of heights? Evidence from the Wenchuan earthquake," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 79-89.
    2. Zhu, Hongjia & Deng, Yongheng & Zhu, Rong & He, Xiaobo, 2016. "Fear of nuclear power? Evidence from Fukushima nuclear accident and land markets in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 139-154.
    3. Masako Ikefuji & Roger J. A. Laeven & Jan R. Magnus & Yuan Yue, 2022. "Earthquake Risk Embedded in Property Prices: Evidence From Five Japanese Cities," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 117(537), pages 82-93, January.
    4. Greg Barron & Eldad Yechiam, 2009. "The coexistence of overestimation and underweighting of rare events and the contingent recency effect," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 4(6), pages 447-460, October.
    5. Thomas Schuster, 2003. "News Events and Price Movements. Price Effects of Economic and Non-Economic Publications in the News Media," Finance 0305009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. repec:cup:judgdm:v:4:y:2009:i:6:p:447-460 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ti-Ching Peng, 2021. "The effect of hazard shock and disclosure information on property and land prices: a machine-learning assessment in the case of Japan," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 41(1), pages 1-32, February.
    8. Moshe Levy & Haim Levy, 2013. "Prospect Theory: Much Ado About Nothing?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 7, pages 129-144, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Bank, Matthias & Baumann, Ralf H., 2016. "Price formation, market quality and the effects of reduced latency in the very short run," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 629-645.
    10. Diecidue, E. & Wakker, P.P. & Zeelenberg, M., 2007. "Eliciting decision weights by adapting de Finetti's betting-odds method to prospect theory," Other publications TiSEM ac35645a-7772-46fe-ba31-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Diecidue, E. & Schmidt, U. & Wakker, P.P., 2000. "A Theory of the Gambling Effect," Other publications TiSEM c975e1b4-2319-429d-a68e-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Kevin Haninger & James K. Hammitt, 2011. "Diminishing Willingness to Pay per Quality‐Adjusted Life Year: Valuing Acute Foodborne Illness," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(9), pages 1363-1380, September.
    13. repec:cup:judgdm:v:16:y:2021:i:6:p:1324-1369 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Lucy Ackert & Narat Charupat & Bryan Church & Richard Deaves, 2006. "An experimental examination of the house money effect in a multi-period setting," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 9(1), pages 5-16, April.
    15. Levente Timar & Arthur Grimes & Richard Fabling, 2014. "That Sinking Feeling: The Changing Price of Disaster Risk Following an Earthquake," Working Papers 14_13, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    16. Tabea Herrmann & Olaf Hübler & Lukas Menkhoff & Ulrich Schmidt, 2017. "Allais for the poor: Relations to ability, information processing, and risk attitudes," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 129-156, April.
    17. Birnbaum, Michael H. & Gutierrez, Roman J., 2007. "Testing for intransitivity of preferences predicted by a lexicographic semi-order," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 96-112, September.
    18. Michael Birnbaum & Ulrich Schmidt, 2008. "An experimental investigation of violations of transitivity in choice under uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 77-91, August.
    19. Amit Kothiyal & Vitalie Spinu & Peter Wakker, 2011. "Prospect theory for continuous distributions: A preference foundation," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 195-210, June.
    20. Chao, Ching-Hsiang & Chang, Chuang-Chang & Chen, Tsung-Yu & Wu, Zhen-Xing, 2024. "Determinants of disposition effect in the real estate market: Evidence from Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    21. Massimiliano Caporin & Luca Corazzini & Michele Costola, 2014. "Measuring the Behavioral Component of Financial Fluctuations: An Analysis Based on the S&P 500," CREATES Research Papers 2014-33, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    22. David Hirshleife, 2015. "Behavioral Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 133-159, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19515. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.