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Deflation Risk

Author

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  • Matthias Fleckenstein
  • Francis A. Longstaff
  • Hanno Lustig

Abstract

We study the nature of deflation risk by extracting the objective distribution of inflation from the market prices of inflation swaps and options. We find that the market expects inflation to average about 2.5 percent over the next 30 years. Despite this, the market places substantial probability weight on deflation scenarios in which prices decline by more than 10 to 20 percent over extended horizons. We find that the market prices the economic tail risk of de- flation very similarly to other types of tail risks such as catastrophic insurance losses. In contrast, inflation tail risk has only a relatively small premium. De- flation risk is also significantly linked to measures of financial tail risk such as swap spreads, corporate credit spreads, and the pricing of super senior tranches. These results indicate that systemic financial risk and deflation risk are closely related.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff & Hanno Lustig, 2013. "Deflation Risk," NBER Working Papers 19238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19238
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Weber & Christian Dorion & Alexandre Jeanneret & Harjoat Bhamra, 2017. "Deflation, Sticky Leverage and Asset Prices," 2017 Meeting Papers 796, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Escaping the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1030-1058, April.
    3. Scharnagl, Michael & Stapf, Jelena, 2015. "Inflation, deflation, and uncertainty: What drives euro-area option-implied inflation expectations, and are they still anchored in the sovereign debt crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 248-269.
    4. Christian Bauer & Sebastian Weber, 2016. "The Efficiency of Monetary Policy when Guiding Inflation Expectations," Research Papers in Economics 2016-14, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    5. Hall, R.E., 2016. "Macroeconomics of Persistent Slumps," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2131-2181, Elsevier.
    6. Scharnagl, Michael & Stapf, Jelena, 2014. "Inflation, deflation, and uncertainty: What drives euro area option-implied inflation expectations and are they still anchored in the sovereign debt crisis?," Discussion Papers 24/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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