IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/1897.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Asset Prices in a Time Series Model with Disparately Informed, Competative Traders

Author

Listed:
  • Kenneth J. Singleton

Abstract

This paper examines the time series properties of the price of a risky asset implied by a model in which competitive traders are heterogeneously informed about the underlying sources of uncertainty in the economy.Traders do not observe the shocks in the period they occur. However, traders are imperfectly and heterogeneously informed about these shocks for three reasons:(1) the shocks are serially correlated arid hence partially forecast able from their past history, (2) each trader receives private signals about the current values of a subset of the shocks, and (3) the equilibrium price conveys information about the private signals and beliefs of other traders. Since prices convey information in this economy, traders will face an infinite regress problem in expectations associated with their desire to forecast the beliefs of others, the beliefs of others about average beliefs, etc.The equilibrium time series representation for the price of the risky security is deduced in various imperfect information environments. Then the volatility and autocorrelations of prices in this model are compared to the corresponding statistics for a model in which agents are homogeneously informed.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth J. Singleton, 1986. "Asset Prices in a Time Series Model with Disparately Informed, Competative Traders," NBER Working Papers 1897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1897
    Note: EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w1897.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Judd, Kenneth L., 1985. "The law of large numbers with a continuum of IID random variables," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 19-25, February.
    2. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    3. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-1181, September.
    4. Eichenbaum, Martin & Hansen, Lars Peter, 1990. "Estimating Models with Intertemporal Substitution Using Aggregate Time Series Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 53-69, January.
    5. Williams, Joseph T., 1977. "Capital asset prices with heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 219-239, November.
    6. Taylor, John B, 1977. "Conditions for Unique Solutions in Stochastic Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1377-1385, September.
    7. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1981. "Information aggregation in a noisy rational expectations economy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 221-235, September.
    8. Admati, Anat R, 1985. "A Noisy Rational Expectations Equilibrium for Multi-asset Securities Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 629-657, May.
    9. Cornell, Bradford, 1983. "The Money Supply Announcements Puzzle: Review and Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 644-657, September.
    10. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-1286, September.
    11. Jarrow, Robert A, 1980. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Restrictions on Short Sales, and Equilibrium Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(5), pages 1105-1113, December.
    12. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
    13. Singleton, Kenneth J, 1980. "Expectations Models of the Term Structure and Implied Variance Bounds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1159-1176, December.
    14. Townsend, Robert M, 1983. "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 546-588, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Si Chen, 2022. "Information and dynamic trading with the Gambler’s fallacy," Mathematics and Financial Economics, Springer, volume 16, number 1, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Naik, Narayan Y., 1997. "On aggregation of information in competitive markets: The dynamic case," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1199-1227, June.
    2. Mäkinen, Taneli & Ohl, Björn, 2015. "Information acquisition and learning from prices over the business cycle," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 585-633.
    3. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 552-576, June.
    4. Marmora, Paul & Rytchkov, Oleg, 2018. "Learning about noise," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 209-224.
    5. Felipe Zurita, 2001. "Speculation in Financial Markets: A Survey," Documentos de Trabajo 197, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    6. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    7. Madrigal, Vicente & Scheinkman, Jose A., 1997. "Price Crashes, Information Aggregation, and Market-Making," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 16-63, July.
    8. Linn, Scott C. & Stanhouse, Bryan E., 1997. "The economic advantage of least squares learning in a risky asset market," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 303-319.
    9. Xue-Zhong He & Lei Shi, 2010. "Differences in Opinion and Risk Premium," Research Paper Series 271, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    10. He, Hua & Wang, Jiang, 1995. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 919-972.
    11. Felipe Zurita, 2004. "Essays on Speculation," Levine's Working Paper Archive 618897000000000849, David K. Levine.
    12. Yu, Edison G., 2018. "Dynamic market participation and endogenous information aggregation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 491-517.
    13. Francisco Barillas & Kristoffer Nimark, 2019. "Speculation and the Bond Market: An Empirical No-Arbitrage Framework," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(9), pages 4179-4203, September.
    14. Li, Frank Weikai & Sun, Chengzhu, 2022. "Information acquisition and expected returns: Evidence from EDGAR search traffic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    15. Georgy Chabakauri & Kathy Yuan & Konstantinos E Zachariadis, 2022. "Multi-asset Noisy Rational Expectations Equilibrium with Contingent Claims," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(5), pages 2445-2490.
    16. Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1406, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    17. Francisco Barillas & Kristoffer Nimark, 2012. "Speculation, risk premia and expectations in the yield curve," Economics Working Papers 1337, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2013.
    18. Scott Robertson, 2023. "Equilibrium with Heterogeneous Information Flows," Papers 2304.01272, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    19. Dunn, Kenneth B. & Singleton, Kenneth J., 1986. "Modeling the term structure of interest rates under non-separable utility and durability of goods," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 27-55, September.
    20. Spyros Pagratis, 2005. "Asset pricing, asymmetric information and rating announcements: does benchmarking on ratings matter?," Bank of England working papers 265, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1897. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.