IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/18489.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Revenue Demands of Public Employee Pension Promises

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Novy-Marx
  • Joshua D. Rauh

Abstract

We calculate increases in contributions required to achieve full funding of state and local pension systems in the U.S. over 30 years. Without policy changes, contributions would have to increase by 2.5 times, reaching 14.1% of the total own-revenue generated by state and local governments. This represents a tax increase of $1,385 per household per year, around half of which goes to pay down legacy liabilities while half funds the cost of new promises. We examine sensitivity to asset return assumptions, wage correlations, the treatment of workers not currently in Social Security, and endogenous geographical shifts in the tax base.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2012. "The Revenue Demands of Public Employee Pension Promises," NBER Working Papers 18489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18489
    Note: AG PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18489.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2007. "Portfolio Choice over the Life‐Cycle when the Stock and Labor Markets Are Cointegrated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2123-2167, October.
    2. Beshears, John & Choi, James J. & Laibson, David & Madrian, Brigitte C., 2011. "Behavioral economics perspectives on public sector pension plans," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 315-336, April.
    3. Bohn, Henning, 2011. "Should public retirement plans be fully funded?," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 195-219, April.
    4. James Poterba & Joshua Rauh & Steven Venti & David Wise, 2007. "Defined Contribution Plans, Defined Benefit Plans, and the Accumulation of Retirement Wealth," NBER Chapters, in: Public Policy and Retirement, Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar (TAPES), pages 2062-2086, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Comprix, Joseph & Muller, Karl A., 2011. "Pension plan accounting estimates and the freezing of defined benefit pension plans," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-133.
    6. Friedberg, Leora, 2011. "Labor market aspects of state and local retirement plans: a review of evidence and a blueprint for future research," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 337-361, April.
    7. Feldstein, Martin, 1995. "The Effect of Marginal Tax Rates on Taxable Income: A Panel Study of the 1986 Tax Reform Act," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 551-572, June.
    8. Comprix, Joseph & Muller III, Karl A., 2011. "Pension plan accounting estimates and the freezing of defined benefit pension plans," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 115-133, February.
    9. Helms, L Jay, 1985. "The Effect of State and Local Taxes on Economic Growth: A Time Series-Cross Section Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 574-582, November.
    10. Lucas, Deborah (ed.), 2010. "Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226496580, August.
    11. Deborah J. Lucas & Stephen P. Zeldes, 2009. "How Should Public Pension Plans Invest?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 527-532, May.
    12. Pennacchi, George & Rastad, Mahdi, 2011. "Portfolio allocation for public pension funds," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 221-245, April.
    13. Andrew A. Samwick & Jonathan Skinner, 2004. "How Will 401(k) Pension Plans Affect Retirement Income?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 329-343, March.
    14. Zvi Bodie & John B. Shoven & David A. Wise, 1988. "Pensions in the U.S. Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bodi88-1.
    15. Deborah Lucas, 2010. "Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number luca07-1.
    16. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    17. Robert Novy‐Marx & Joshua Rauh, 2011. "Public Pension Promises: How Big Are They and What Are They Worth?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1211-1249, August.
    18. Charles M. Tiebout, 1956. "A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(5), pages 416-416.
    19. Schieber, Sylvester J., 2011. "Political economy of public sector retirement plans," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 269-290, April.
    20. Deborah Lucas, 2007. "Valuing & Hedging: Defined Benefit Pension Obligations - The Role of Stocks Revisited," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 169, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    21. Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2009. "The Liabilities and Risks of State-Sponsored Pension Plans," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 191-210, Fall.
    22. Jeffrey R. Brown & David W. Wilcox, 2009. "Discounting State and Local Pension Liabilities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 538-542, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matthew M. Chingos & Martin R. West, 2015. "Which Teachers Choose a Defined Contribution Pension Plan? Evidence from the Florida Retirement System," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 10(2), pages 193-222, March.
    2. Bo Zhao & David Coyne, 2017. "Walking a Tightrope: Are U.S. State and Local Governments on a Fiscally Sustainable Path?," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 3-23, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joshua D. Rauh & Irina Stefanescu & Stephen P. Zeldes, 2020. "Cost Saving and the Freezing of Corporate Pension Plans," NBER Working Papers 27251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jeffrey R. Brown & Robert Clark & Joshua Rauh, 2011. "The Economics of State and Local Public Pensions," NBER Working Papers 16792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Michaelides, Alexander & Papakyriakou, Panayiotis & Milidonis, Andreas, 2019. "Corporate Pension Plan Funding Levels and Pension Assumptions," CEPR Discussion Papers 13591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Rauh, Joshua D. & Stefanescu, Irina & Zeldes, Stephen P., 2020. "Cost saving and the freezing of corporate pension plans," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    5. Mitchell, O.S. & Piggott, J., 2016. "Workplace-Linked Pensions for an Aging Demographic," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 865-904, Elsevier.
    6. Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2012. "Fiscal Imbalances and Borrowing Costs: Evidence from State Investment Losses," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 182-213, May.
    7. Siona Listokin & Meng-Hao Li & Abu Bakkar Siddique & Rajendra Kulkarni & Naoru Koizumi, 2023. "Public pension fund investments into hedge funds during the Great Recession: a network analysis," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(7), pages 1-17, July.
    8. Godbout, Luc & Trudel, Yves & St-Cerny, Suzie, 2013. "Le régime de rentes du Québec : le rendement différencié selon l’année de prise de la retraite de 1968 jusqu’en 2056," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(2), pages 89-113, Juin.
    9. Lekniute, Z. & Beetsma, R.M.W.J. & Ponds, E.H.M., 2014. "A Value-Based Approach to the Redesign of US State Pension Plans," Other publications TiSEM 3156027d-33c6-4045-963a-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Meijdam, A.C. & Ponds, E.H.M., 2013. "On the Optimal Degree Of Funding Of Public Sector Pension Plans," Other publications TiSEM 1c5b7af1-e1ee-4d01-a341-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Boubaker, Sabri & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Paltalidis, Nikos, 2017. "Assessing the effects of unconventional monetary policy and low interest rates on pension fund risk incentives," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 35-52.
    12. Boubaker, Sabri & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Paltalidis, Nikos, 2015. "Assessing the effects of unconventional monetary policy on pension funds risk incentives," MPRA Paper 73398, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2016.
    13. Dashle Kelley, 2014. "The political economy of unfunded public pension liabilities," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 21-38, January.
    14. Luca Benzon & Olena Chyruk, 2015. "The Value and Risk of Human Capital," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 179-200, December.
    15. Luca Larcher & Francis Breedon, 2020. "Discounting and the market valuation of defined benefit pensions," Working Papers 932, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    16. Luca Benzoni & Olena Chyruk, 2013. "Human Capital and Long-Run Labor Income Risk," Working Paper Series WP-2013-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    17. Brown, Jeffrey R. & Pennacchi, George G., 2016. "Discounting pension liabilities: funding versus value," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 254-284, July.
    18. Ilja Boelaars & Roel Mehlkopf, 2018. "Optimal risk-sharing in pension funds when stock and labor markets are co-integrated," DNB Working Papers 595, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    19. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Adrien Verdelhan, 2013. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 38-94.
    20. Aleksandar Andonov & Joshua D Rauh, 2022. "The Return Expectations of Public Pension Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(8), pages 3777-3822.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General
    • H74 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Borrowing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18489. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.