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On the Nature and Estimation of Age. Period, and Cohort Effects in Demographic Data

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  • David E. Bloom

Abstract

This paper develops a general procedure for estimating age, period, and cohort effects in demographic data. The procedure involves structuring, mathematically, the effect of cross-cohort changes in the timing and level of a vital event on period rates of occurrence of the event. The procedureis illustrated and tested in an application to data on the first birth rates of American women. Overall, the empirical results provide support for the procedure. The results also provide evidence that period effects are highly age-specific and that the size of cohort effects may be substantially overestimated by models which fail to allow for the age specificity of period effects.

Suggested Citation

  • David E. Bloom, 1985. "On the Nature and Estimation of Age. Period, and Cohort Effects in Demographic Data," NBER Working Papers 1700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1700
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Bloom & James Trussell, 1984. "What are the determinants of delayed childbearing and permanent childlessness in the United States?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 21(4), pages 591-611, November.
    2. N. Ryder, 1964. "The process of demographic translation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 1(1), pages 74-82, March.
    3. Willard Rodgers & Arland Thornton, 1985. "Changing patterns of first marriage in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 22(2), pages 265-279, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. M. Baldini & C. Mazzaferro, 2000. "Transizione demografica e formazione del risparmio delle famiglie italiane," Working Papers 366, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.

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