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International Comparison of the Sources of Productivity Slowdown 1973 1982

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  • John F. Helliwell
  • Peter Sturm
  • Gerard Salou

Abstract

This paper uses an integrated model of aggregate supply to analyze the post-1973 slowdown in productivity growth in the seven major OECD economies. Factor substitution, unexpected demand changes, profitability, and inventory disequilibrium all contribute to the explanation, which is based on a three-factor nested aggregate production function, including energy, and postulating Harrod-neutral disembodied technical progress. The model is first applied separately to the seven countries assuming constant (though country-specific) rates of technical progress. This model provides empirical evidence that this rate of progress has in fact slowed down for several of the faster-growing countries, even after adjusting for factor substitution and cyclical factors. The model is therefore re-estimated, and the sources of productivity decline recalculated, on the hypothesis that rates of efficiency growth in other countries are converging to those in the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • John F. Helliwell & Peter Sturm & Gerard Salou, 1984. "International Comparison of the Sources of Productivity Slowdown 1973 1982," NBER Working Papers 1465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1465
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Berndt, Ernst R & Wood, David O, 1979. "Engineering and Econometric Interpretations of Energy-Capital Complementarity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 342-354, June.
    2. Michael Bruno, 1984. "Raw Materials, Profits, and the Productivity Slowdown," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(1), pages 1-29.
    3. Nordhaus, William D., 1982. "Economic policy in the face of declining productivity growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 131-157.
    4. John W. Kendrick & Beatrice N. Vaccara, 1980. "New Developments in Productivity Measurement and Analysis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kend80-1.
    5. Denison, Edward F, 1983. "The Interruption of Productivity Growth in the United States," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(369), pages 56-77, March.
    6. John F. Helliwell, 1984. "Stagflation and Productivity Decline in Canada, 1974-82," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 191-216, May.
    7. Pentti J.K. Kouri & Jorge Braga de Macedo & Albert J. Viscio, 1982. "Profitability, Employment and Structural Adjustment in France," NBER Working Papers 1005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Paolo Sylos-Labini, 1984. "Factors Affecting Changes in Productivity," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 6(2), pages 161-179, January.
    9. Christensen, L. R. & Cummings, D. & Jorgenson, D. W., 1981. "Relative productivity levels, 1947-1973 : An international comparison," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 61-94.
    10. Lindbeck, Assar, 1983. "The Recent Slowdowns of Productivity Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(369), pages 13-34, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. John F. Helliwell & Alan Chung, 1991. "Macroeconomic Convergence: International Transmission of Growth and Technical Progress," NBER Chapters, in: International Economic Transactions: Issues in Measurement and Empirical Research, pages 388-436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. John F. Helliwell, 1994. "International Growth Linkages: Evidence from Asia and the OECD," NBER Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, pages 7-29, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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