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New Estimates of the Value of Federal Mineral Rights and Land

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  • Michael J. Boskin
  • Marc S. Robinson
  • Terrance O'Reilly
  • Praveen Kumar

Abstract

We calculate a time series of the value of federal mineral rights in oil and natural gas by using various estimates of proven and unproven reserves and time series on federal government royalties and bonus payments. We also present estimates of the components of the revaluation of this series through time.The results are striking. Federal mineral rights are the single largest item in a complete balance sheet of the federal government, dominating the total value of tangible capital or financial assets. In 1981, for example, we estimate that the value of federal oil and gas rights exceeded $800 billion, which was larger than the privately held national debt. The paper also presents estimates of various confidence bounds on the value of oil and natural gas. The methodology can be extended to other minerals, although we have not done so; our estimate is a lower bound on the total value of all mineral rights.The paper also expands and extends previous estimates of the value of federal land. New data, and attention to the detailed decomposition of federal land holdings by type, lead to substantially larger estimates of the value of federal land than have been presented in previous research. Our estimate is that by 1981, the total value of federal land was $175 billion.

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  • Michael J. Boskin & Marc S. Robinson & Terrance O'Reilly & Praveen Kumar, 1984. "New Estimates of the Value of Federal Mineral Rights and Land," NBER Working Papers 1447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1447
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    Cited by:

    1. Boskin, Michael J. & Lau, Lawrence J., 1988. "An Analysis of Postwar U.S. Consumption and Saving," CEPR Publications 244417, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.
    2. Gustavo Garcia Osio & Rafael Rodriguez Balza & Luis Marcano & Ricardo Penfold & Gustavo Sanchez, 1998. "La sostenibilidad de la política fiscal en el América Latina: El caso de Venezuela," Research Department Publications 3016, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    3. Sweeney, James L. & Boskin, Michael J., 1985. "Analyzing Impacts of Potential Tax Policy Changes on U.S. Oil Security," CEPR Publications 244428, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Boskin, Michael J. & Robinson, Marc S. & Huber, Alan M., 1987. "Government Saving, Capital Formation and Wealth in the United States, 1947-1985," CEPR Publications 244416, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.
    5. Roger S. Smith, 1992. "Income Growth, Government Spending, and Wasting Assets - Alberta's Oil and Gas," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 18(4), pages 387-412, December.
    6. Michael J. Boskin, 2009. "Perspectives on the New Architecture for the US National Accounts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 69-73, May.
    7. Durlauf, Steven N. & Hall, Robert E., 1988. "Bounds on the Variances of Specification Errors in Models with Expectations," CEPR Publications 244420, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.
    8. Boskin, Michael J., 1988. "Issues in the Measurement and Interpretation of Saving and Wealth," CEPR Publications 244418, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.
    9. Rucker, Randal R. & Leffler, Keith B., 1986. "To Harvest Or Not To Harvest? An Analysis Of Cutting Behavior On Federal Timber Sales Contracts," Department of Economics and Business - Archive 259420, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Boskin, Michael J., 1987. "Concepts and Measures of Federal Deficits and Debt and their Impact on Economic Activity," CEPR Publications 244437, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.
    11. Michael J. Boskin & Marc S. Robinson & Alan M. Huber, 1987. "New Estimates of State and Local Government Tangible Capital and Net Investment," NBER Working Papers 2131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Manne, Alan S., 1984. "On the Formulation and Solution of Economic Equilibrium Models," CEPR Publications 244427, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.

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