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Understanding the New-Keynesian Model when Monetary Policy Switches Regimes

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  • Roger E.A. Farmer
  • Daniel F. Waggoner
  • Tao Zha

Abstract

This paper studies a New-Keynesian model in which monetary policy may switch between regimes. We derive sufficient conditions for indeterminacy that are easy to implement and we show that the necessary and sufficient condition for determinacy, provided by Davig and Leeper, is necessary but not sufficient. More importantly, we use a two-regime model to show that indeterminacy in a passive regime may spill over to an active regime, no matter how active the latter regime is. As a result, a passive monetary policy is more damaging than has been previously thought. Our results imply that the propagation of shocks in an active regime, such as that of the Federal Reserve in the post-1982 period, may be substantially affected by the possibility of a return to a passive regime of the kind that was followed in the 1960s and 1970s.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger E.A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007. "Understanding the New-Keynesian Model when Monetary Policy Switches Regimes," NBER Working Papers 12965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12965
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 2003. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-30, February.
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    6. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 607-635, June.
    7. Benjamin M. Friedman, 2004. "Why the Federal Reserve Should Not Adopt Inflation Targeting," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 129-136, March.
    8. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
    9. Roger E. A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2009. "Indeterminacy in a forward‐looking regime switching model," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(1), pages 69-84, March.
    10. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Noah Williams & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 108, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Barthélemy, Jean & Marx, Magali, 2017. "Solving endogenous regime switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1-25.
    3. Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007. "Asymmetric expectation effects of regime shifts and the Great Moderation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2007-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    4. František Brázdik, 2011. "An Announced Regime Switch: Optimal Policy for the Transition Period," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(5), pages 411-431, November.
    5. Vidakovic, Neven, 2014. "Exchange rate regime and household's choice of debt," MPRA Paper 54219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Barthélemy, J. & Marx, M., 2011. "State-Dependent Probability Distributions in Non Linear Rational Expectations Models," Working papers 347, Banque de France.
    7. Pedro de Araujo & Roisin O’Sullivan & Nicole B. Simpson, 2013. "What Should be Taught in Intermediate Macroeconomics?," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 74-90, March.
    8. Zheng Liu & Daniel Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2009. "Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts in Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 284-303, April.
    9. Shayan Zakipour-Saber, 2019. "State-dependent Monetary Policy Regimes," Working Papers 882, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    10. Barnett, William A. & Duzhak, Evgeniya A., 2019. "Structural Stability Of The Generalized Taylor Rule," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1664-1678, June.
    11. Ferman, Marcelo, 2011. "Switching monetary policy regimes and the nominal term structure," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119070, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Barnett, William A. & Chen, Guo, 2015. "Bifurcation of Macroeconometric Models and Robustness of Dynamical Inferences," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 8(1-2), pages 1-144, September.
    13. Adam Cagliarini & Mariano Kulish, 2013. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models with Predictable Structural Changes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 328-336, March.
    14. Roger E. A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 608-617, March.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3ug0u3qte39q7rqvbmij9rb993 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P.A., 2008. "Term structure transmission of monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 71-92, March.
    17. Ferman, Marcelo, 2011. "Switching Monetary Policy Regimes and the Nominal Term Structure," Dynare Working Papers 5, CEPREMAP.
    18. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3ug0u3qte39q7rqvbmij9rb993 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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