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Optimal Market Timing

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  • Erica X. N. Li
  • Dmitry Livdan
  • Lu Zhang

Abstract

We use a fully-specified neoclassical model augmented with costly external equity as a laboratory to study the relations between stock returns and equity financing decisions. Simulations show that the model can simultaneously and in many cases quantitatively reproduce: procyclical equity issuance; the negative relation between aggregate equity share and future stock market returns; long-term underperformance following equity issuance and the positive relation of its magnitude with the volume of issuance; the mean-reverting behavior in the operating performance of issuing firms; and the positive long-term stock price drift of firms distributing cash and its positive relation with book-to-market. We conclude that systematic mispricing seems unnecessary to generate the return-related evidence often interpreted as behavioral underreaction to market timing.

Suggested Citation

  • Erica X. N. Li & Dmitry Livdan & Lu Zhang, 2006. "Optimal Market Timing," NBER Working Papers 12014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Michael J. Cooper & Huseyin Gulen & Michael J. Schill, 2008. "Asset Growth and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1609-1651, August.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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