IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/1144.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Shunto, Rational Expectations, and Output Growth in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Herschel I. Grossman
  • William S. Haraf

Abstract

This paper describes a theoretical and empirical study of the Japanese macroeconomy that focuses on the role of predetermined nominal wages in the relation between monetary policy and aggregate output. The main features of the model are that nominal wage rates set at Shunto are equal to rational expectations of the nominal wage rates that would be consistent with target levels of real output and that firms determine employment and output by equating marginal productivities to real wage rates. The essential implication of the model is that the current deviation of aggregate output from its target level depends only on innovations in inflation and productivity since the last Shunto. The equation derived to implement the model empirically relates current aggregate output growth in a precise way to past values of output growth and inflation since the last Shunto and includes an explicit specification of a white noise error term. The results of econometric analysis of this restricted model equation are consistent with the hypothesis that nominal wages predetermined according to Shunto with rational expectations are important tor the determination of real aggregates. The empirical analysis, however, also suggests that the assumptions about monetary policy used to close the model are not adequate, a result that leads to directions for further research.

Suggested Citation

  • Herschel I. Grossman & William S. Haraf, 1983. "Shunto, Rational Expectations, and Output Growth in Japan," NBER Working Papers 1144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1144
    Note: EFG ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w1144.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
    2. Boschen, John F. & Grossman, Herschel I., 1982. "Tests of equilibrium macroeconomics using contemporaneous monetary data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 309-333.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Matthieu Renault, Francesco Sergi, 2019. "European Economics and the Early Years of the “International Seminar on Macroeconomicsâ€," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2019_50, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    2. Olivei, Giovanni & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2007. "Synchronization in wage setting and the effects of monetary policy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 4990, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Denis Fougère & Erwan Gautier, 2013. "Wage Rigidity, Collective Bargaining, and the Minimum Wage: Evidence from French Agreement Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(4), pages 1337-1351, October.
    4. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Matthieu Renault & Francesco Sergi, 2021. "European Economics and the Early Years of the International Seminar on Macroeconomics," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 131(4), pages 693-722.
    5. Olivei, Giovanni & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2010. "Wage-setting patterns and monetary policy: International evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 785-802, October.
    6. Freeman, Richard B. & Weitzman, Martin L., 1987. "Bonuses and employment in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 168-194, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Grossman, Herschel I., 1983. "The natural-rate hypothesis, the rational-expectations hypothesis, and the remarkable survival of non-market-clearing assumptions," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 225-245, January.
    2. Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2010. "Monetary Misperceptions, Output, and Inflation Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2-3), pages 483-502, March.
    3. Roger Backhouse & Mauro Boianovsky, 2005. "Disequilibrium Macroeconomics: An Episode In The Transformation Of Modern Macroeconomics," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 012, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    4. Michael Dotsey & Robert G. King, 1988. "Rational expectations business cycle models: a survey," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 74(Mar), pages 3-15.
    5. Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick, 1986. "Money and the Open Economy Business Cycle: A Flexible Price Model," NBER Working Papers 1967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Bennett T. McCallum, 1982. "Macroeconomics after a decade of rational expectations : some critical issues," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 68(Nov), pages 3-12.
    7. Eden, Benjamin, 1994. "The Adjustment of Prices to Monetary Shocks When Trade Is Uncertain and Sequential," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(3), pages 493-509, June.
    8. Lohmann, Susanne, 1997. "Partisan control of the money supply and decentralized appointment powers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 225-246, May.
    9. Bennet T. McCallum, 1984. "A Linearized Version of Lucas's Neutrality Model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(1), pages 138-145, February.
    10. Jean-Olivier Hairault & Fran√Áois Langot, 2012. "Markups and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles: A Reappraisal," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(5), pages 995-1014, August.
    11. Froyen, Richard T & Waud, Roger N, 1988. "Real Business Cycles and the Lucas Paradigm," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(2), pages 183-201, April.
    12. J.P.G. Reijnders, 2007. "Impulse or propagation? How the tides turned in Business Cycle Theory," Working Papers 07-07, Utrecht School of Economics.
    13. Lau, Sau-Him Paul, 2001. "Aggregate Pattern of Time-dependent Adjustment Rules, II: Strategic Complementarity and Endogenous Nonsynchronization," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 199-231, June.
    14. Salisu, Afees A. & Ademuyiwa, Idris & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Revisiting the forecasting accuracy of Phillips curve: The role of oil price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 334-356.
    15. Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain, 2022. "External constraint and procyclicality of monetary policy of the Bank of Central African States (BEAC)," MPRA Paper 116375, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 22-51, February.
    17. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1996. "Nobel Lecture: Monetary Neutrality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 661-682, August.
    18. Marcello Basili & Stefano Dalle Mura, 2004. "Ambiguity and macroeconomics:a rationale for price stickiness," Department of Economics University of Siena 428, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    19. Fatemeh Mokhtarzadeh & Luba Petersen, 2021. "Coordinating expectations through central bank projections," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(3), pages 883-918, September.
    20. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder & Bennett T. McCallum, 2005. "Panel discussion I: what have we learned since October 1979?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Mar), pages 277-292.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1144. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.