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Uncertain Parameter Values and the Choice Among Policy Options

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  • Don Fullerton
  • Andrew B. Lyon

Abstract

In this paper, we use tax policy choices to illustrate and investigate the more general problem of using uncertain parameter values in models to evaluate policy choices. We show, for this tax example, how debate on an elasticity parameter translates into a debate about policy choices, andvice versa. To construct this example, we suppose that the choice among four particular tax reform options is based on a single measure of efficiency gain. We show how this gain from each reform depends upon the elasticity of saving with respect to the net rate of return. Within quite narrow and reasonable bounds for the elasticity parameter, we find regions in which each of three different tax reforms turns out to dominate the others.

Suggested Citation

  • Don Fullerton & Andrew B. Lyon, 1983. "Uncertain Parameter Values and the Choice Among Policy Options," NBER Working Papers 1111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1111
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    1. Arnold C. Harberger, 1962. "The Incidence of the Corporation Income Tax," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(3), pages 215-215.
    2. Martin Feldstein, 1978. "The Welfare Cost of Capital Income Taxation," NBER Chapters, in: Research in Taxation, pages 29-51, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1976. "The Phillips curve," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, January.
    4. Boskin, Michael J, 1978. "Taxation, Saving, and the Rate of Interest," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(2), pages 3-27, April.
    5. Fullerton, Don, et al, 1981. "Corporate Tax Integration in the United States: A General Equilibrium Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 677-691, September.
    6. E. Philip Howrey & Saul H. Hymans, 1978. "The Measurement and Determination of Loanable-Funds Saving," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(3), pages 655-685.
    7. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    8. Michael J. Boskin, 1978. "Taxation, Saving, and the Rate of Interest," NBER Chapters, in: Research in Taxation, pages 3-27, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    1. Omar O. Chisari & Gustavo Ferro & Juan Pablo Vila Martínez, 2017. "International mobility of capital, wage indexation, and the cost of policy mistakes under ambiguity: a CGE evaluation," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 643-660, October.
    2. Fleisher, Beverly, 1986. "Agricultural Policy And Risk: Current Programs And Future Considerations," Regional Research Projects > 1986: S-180 Annual Meeting, March 23-26, 1986, Tampa, Florida 272006, Regional Research Projects > S-180: An Economic Analysis of Risk Management Strategies for Agricultural Production Firms.
    3. Gliesmann, Christian & Ruocco, Anna, 1996. "Computational general equilibrium analysis and economic reasoning," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 71, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
    4. Fehr, Hans & Wiegard, Wolfgang, 1996. "Numerische Gleichgewichtsmodelle: Grundstruktur, Anwendungen und Erkenntnisgehalt," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 75, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.

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