IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/1082.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Asset Substitutability and the Impact of Federal Deficits

Author

Listed:
  • V. Vance Roley

Abstract

In this paper, the role of asset substitutability in determining the impact of debt-financed federal deficits is examined. The issues are first discussed in the context of a simple analytical model in which financial assets are disaggregated into money, federal debt,and corporate bonds. In this model, it is shown that depending on the degree of substitutability among financial assets, a range of possible outcomes associated with a change in the federal deficit is possible.Next, the issue of asset substitutability is examine dempirically in a disaggregated structural model of the Treasury security,corporate bond, and equity markets. Using this model, the implications of larger debt-financed federal deficits are then examined in a series of simulation experiments.

Suggested Citation

  • V. Vance Roley, 1983. "Asset Substitutability and the Impact of Federal Deficits," NBER Working Papers 1082, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1082
    Note: ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w1082.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1978. "Efficient-Markets Theory: Implications for Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(3), pages 707-752.
    2. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    3. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H, 1972. "Money, Debt, and Economic Activity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(5), pages 951-977, Sept.-Oct.
    4. Milton Friedman, 1971. "A Theoretical Framework for Monetary Analysis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie71-1.
    5. Friedman, Benjamin Morton, 1977. "Financial Flow Variables and the Short-Run Determination of Long-Term Interest Rates," Scholarly Articles 4554309, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    6. Feldstein, Martin, 1982. "Government deficits and aggregate demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20.
    7. Walsh, Carl E., 1983. "Asset prices, asset stocks and rational expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 337-349.
    8. Kochin, Levis A, 1974. "Are Future Taxes Anticipated by Consumers? Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 6(3), pages 385-394, August.
    9. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1978. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Growth in a Monetary Economy: A Synthesis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 1-26, February.
    10. Brundy, James M & Jorgenson, Dale W, 1971. "Efficient Estimation of Simultaneous Equations by Instrumental Variables," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(3), pages 207-224, August.
    11. Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Summers, Lawrence H, 1981. "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 706-732, August.
    12. William C. Brainard & James Tobin, 1968. "Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    13. Blanchard, Olivier J & Plantes, Mary Kay, 1977. "A Note on Gross Substitutability of Financial Assets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(3), pages 769-771, April.
    14. Hansen, Bent, 1973. "On the Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policy: A Taxonomic Discussion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(4), pages 546-571, September.
    15. Silber, William L, 1970. "Fiscal Policy in IS-LM Analysis: A Correction," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(4), pages 461-472, November.
    16. Infante, Ettore F. & Stein, Jerome L., 1976. "Does fiscal policy matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 473-500, November.
    17. Meyer, Laurence H., 1975. "The balance sheet identity, the government financing constraint, and the crowding-out effect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 65-78, January.
    18. Friedman, Benjamin M, 1977. "Financial Flow Variables and the Short-Run Determination of Long-Term Interest Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(4), pages 661-689, August.
    19. Cohen, Darrel & McMenamin, J Stuart, 1978. "The Role of Fiscal Policy in a Financially Disaggregated Macroeconomic Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 322-336, August.
    20. Roley, V Vance, 1979. "A Theory of Federal Debt Management," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 915-926, December.
    21. Pesando, James E, 1978. "On the Efficiency of the Bond Market: Some Canadian Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1057-1076, December.
    22. Christopher A. Sims, 1982. "Policy Analysis with Econometric Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 107-164.
    23. Makin, John H, 1983. "Real Interest, Money Surprises, Anticipated Inflation and Fiscal Deficits," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 374-384, August.
    24. Blinder, Alan S. & Solow, Robert M., 1973. "Does fiscal policy matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 319-337.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1), pages 173-224.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. V. Vance Roley, 1980. "The Effect of Federal Debt Management Policy on Corporate Bond and Equity Yields," NBER Working Papers 0586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1983. "A Test of Portfolio Crowding-Out and Related Issues in Finance," NBER Working Papers 1205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Pierre Duguay & Yves Rabeau, 1989. "Les effets macro-économiques de la politique budgétaire : de Keynes à la synthèse néo-classique," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 40(4), pages 597-620.
    4. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1979. "The Determination of Long-Term Interest Rates: Implications for Monetary and Fiscal Policies," NBER Working Papers 0366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Boskin, Michael J., 1987. "Concepts and Measures of Federal Deficits and Debt and their Impact on Economic Activity," CEPR Publications 244437, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.
    6. Visser, H., 1990. "Crowding out and the government budget," Serie Research Memoranda 0006, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    7. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669, Elsevier.
    8. Yvon Fauvel & Alain Paquet & Christian Zimmermann, 1999. "A Survey on Interest Rate Forecasting," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 87, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    9. Visser, H., 1987. "A survey of recent developments in monetary theory," Serie Research Memoranda 0003, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    10. V. Vance Roley, 1980. "Symmetry Restrictions in a System of Financial Asset Demands: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 0593, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Michael R. Darby, 1984. "Some pleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 8(Spr).
    12. Willem H. Buiter, 2003. "James Tobin: An Appreciation of his Contribution to Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(491), pages 585-631, November.
    13. Benjamin M. Friedman & V. Vance Roley, 1981. "Structural Models of Interest Rate Determination and Portfolio Behavior in the Corporate and Government Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 0205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. V. Vance Roley, 1985. "Money Demand Predictability," NBER Working Papers 1580, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1985. "The Substitutability of Debt and Equity Securities," NBER Chapters, in: Corporate Capital Structures in the United States, pages 197-238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. James R. Barth & George Iden & Frank S. Russek, 1984. "Do Federal Deficits Really Matter?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 3(1), pages 79-95, September.
    17. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1981. "Debt Management Policy, Interest Rates, and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 0830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Who Puts the Inflation Premium Into Nominal Interests Rates?," NBER Working Papers 0231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Alan S. Blinder, 1982. "On the Monetization of Deficits," NBER Working Papers 1052, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Pesando, James E., 1981. "On forecasting interest rates : An efficient markets perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 305-318.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1082. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.