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Les effets macro-économiques de la politique budgétaire : de Keynes à la synthèse néo-classique

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  • Pierre Duguay
  • Yves Rabeau

Abstract

[fre] Les effets macro-économiques de la politique budgétaire : de Keynes à la synthèse néo-classique . . A l'aide d'un modèle macro-économique de simulation en économie fermée, nous examinons dans cet article l'effet d'une modification des hypothèses concernant le comportement des salaires et celui des autorités budgétaires et monétaires sur le processus de passage d'un court terme de type keynésien à un long terme de type néo-classique. Lorsqu'il n'existe aucune contrainte d'offre dans le modèle et que les salaires sont aussi fixés de façon exogène, la politique budgétaire expansionniste conjuguée à une politique monétaire d'accompagnement peut avoir des effets positifs permanents sur le secteur réel de l'économie. Lorsque l'on introduit une contrainte d'offre par le biais d'une courbe de Phillips, l'augmentation des dépenses publiques entraîne alors un important effet d'éviction à long terme. Dans ce cas, si les ménages escomptent les taxes futures à la Barro, l'effet d'éviction est nettement plus faible. Enfin, l'addition d'attentes adaptatives dans l'équation salariale ne modifie pas la nature du régime de croissance équilibrée vers lequel l'économie converge mais altère cependant la nature du sentier de convergence. [eng] The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy : from keynes to the neo-classical synthesis. . The impact of changes in the assumptions regarding the wage equation and in the attitude of fiscal and monetary authorities on the growth path and the nature of the steady state of the economy is analyzed in this paper with a closecl econorny version of a macroeconomic simulation model. When there is no supply constraints and when wages are exogenous, fiscal policy coupled with an accommodating monetary policy can have permanent effects on the real sector of the economy. When we introduce a Phillips curve in the model, a permanent rise in public expenditures creates a substantial crowding ont effect in the long run. However, if households discount future taxes in a Barrovian way, the crowding out effect is significantly lessened. Finally, introducing adaptative expectations in the wage equation does not modify the nature of the steady state regime but alters the path along which the economy converges towards a steady state.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Duguay & Yves Rabeau, 1989. "Les effets macro-économiques de la politique budgétaire : de Keynes à la synthèse néo-classique," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 40(4), pages 597-620.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1989_num_40_4_409157
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1989.409157
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1989.409157
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