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Energy Prices, Inflation, and Recession, 1974-1975

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  • Knut Anton Mork
  • Robert E. Hall

Abstract

The energy price shock depressed real output by two percent in 1974 and by five percent in 1975, according to our results. Prices rose by four percent in 1974 and by another two percent in 1975. These conclusions are derived from an aggregate model of the U.S. economy with an explicit role of energy in production. The distinction between expected and unexpected shocks is an important part of the model. We also examine monetary and fiscal policies that might have offset the energy shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Knut Anton Mork & Robert E. Hall, 1979. "Energy Prices, Inflation, and Recession, 1974-1975," NBER Working Papers 0369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0369
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    2. Parry, Ian W.H. & Darmstadter, Joel, 2003. "The Costs of U.S. Oil Dependency," Discussion Papers 10644, Resources for the Future.
    3. Aminu, Nasir & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2018. "The role of energy prices in the Great Recession — A two-sector model with unfiltered data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 14-34.
    4. Chia-Yon Chen & Adam Rose, 1990. "A Structural Decomposition Analysis of Changes in Energy Demand in Taiwan: 1971-1984," The Energy Journal, , vol. 11(1), pages 127-147, January.
    5. Walter C. Labys & Alfred Maizels, 1990. "Commodity Price Fluctuations and Macro-economic Adjustments in the Developed Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-1990-088, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Bai, Yang & Dahl, Carol, 2018. "Evaluating the management of U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve during oil disruptions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 25-38.
    7. Michael R. Darby, 1981. "The Real Price of Oil and the 1970s World Inflation," NBER Working Papers 0629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Park, Chuhwan & Chung, Mo & Lee, Sukgyu, 2011. "The effects of oil price on regional economies with different production structures: A case study from Korea using a structural VAR model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8185-8195.
    9. Merve Karacaer-Ulusoy & Ayhan Kapusuzoglu, 2017. "The Dynamics of Financial and Macroeconomic Determinants in Natural Gas and Crude Oil Markets: Evidence from Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development/Gulf Cooperation Council/Organization," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 167-187.
    10. Michael R. Darby, 1983. "The Importance of Oil Price Changes in the 1970s World Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: The International Transmission of Inflation, pages 232-272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Venus khim-sen Liew & Arunnan Balasubramaniam, 2017. "Oil Price Shocks and Sectoral Outputs: Empirical Evidence from Malaysia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 38-47.
    12. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Common cycles and common trends in the stock and oil markets: Evidence from more than 150years of data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 72-86.
    13. Mr. Benjamin L Hunt, 2005. "Oil Price Shocks: Can they Account for the Stagflation in the 1970's?," IMF Working Papers 2005/215, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Michael B. Devereux & Kang Shi & Juanyi Xu, 2010. "Oil Currency and the Dollar Standard: A Simple Analytical Model of an International Trade Currency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 521-550, June.
    15. A. G. Aganbegyan, 2022. "The Two Main Macroeconomic Theories of Keynes and Friedman and Their Use in the Economic Policy of the World’s Major Countries and Russia," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 33(5), pages 471-479, October.
    16. B., Anand & Paul, Sunil, 2021. "Oil shocks and stock market: Revisiting the dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    17. Greene, David L & Jones, Donald W & Leiby, Paul N, 1998. "The outlook for US oil dependence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 55-69, January.
    18. Binetti, Marco Nicola, 2023. "Rebuilding energy infrastructures and the manufacturing sector in post-conflict countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    19. Raúl J. Crespo & José A. Zambrano, 2018. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Oil Price Shocks in Venezuela," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 18/703, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    20. Liu, Qing & Shi, Kang & Wu, Zhouheng & Xu, Juanyi, 2014. "Oil price stabilization and global welfare," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 246-260.
    21. Romero-Ávila, Diego & Omay, Tolga, 2022. "Convergence of per capita energy consumption around the world: New evidence from nonlinear panel unit root tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    22. Abimelech Paye Gbatu & Zhen Wang & Presley K. Wesseh, Jr & Isaac Yak Repha Tutdel, 2017. "Asymmetric and Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Evidence from a Panel of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 1-13.
    23. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2015. "Oil price shocks and domestic inflation in Thailand," MPRA Paper 62797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Olayungbo, D.O., 2019. "Effects of oil export revenue on economic growth in Nigeria: A time varying analysis of resource curse," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    25. Rangan Gupta & Hylton Hollander & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "The Impact of Oil Shocks in a Small Open Economy New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for South Africa," Working Papers 201652, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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