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Semiparametric Estimation of a Dynamic Game of Incomplete Information

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  • Patrick Bajari
  • Han Hong

Abstract

Recently, empirical industrial organization economists have proposed estimators for dynamic games of incomplete information. In these models, agents choose from a finite number actions and maximize expected discounted utility in a Markov perfect equilibrium. Previous econometric methods estimate the probability distribution of agents' actions in a first stage. In a second step, a finite vector of parameters of the period return function are estimated. In this paper, we develop semiparametric estimators for dynamic games allowing for continuous state variables and a nonparametric first stage. The estimates of the structural parameters are T1/2 consistent (where T is the sample size) and asymptotically normal even though the first stage is estimated nonparametrically. We also propose sufficient conditions for identification of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Bajari & Han Hong, 2006. "Semiparametric Estimation of a Dynamic Game of Incomplete Information," NBER Technical Working Papers 0320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0320
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    1. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard & Jonathan Levin, 2007. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1331-1370, September.
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    14. Patrick Bajari & John Krainer, 2004. "An Empirical Model of Stock Analysts' Recommendations: Market Fundamentals, Conflicts of Interest, and Peer Effects," NBER Working Papers 10665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Davis, Peter, 2006. "Estimation of quantity games in the presence of indivisibilities and heterogeneous firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 187-214, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Victor Aguirregabiria, 2006. "Another Look at the Identification of Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes: With an Application to Retirement Behavior," 2006 Meeting Papers 169, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Mira, Pedro, 2010. "Dynamic discrete choice structural models: A survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 38-67, May.
    3. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2012. "Sequential Estimation of Structural Models With a Fixed Point Constraint," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 2303-2319, September.
    4. Carlos Daniel Santos, 2009. "Recovering the Sunk Costs of R&D: the Moulds Industry Case," CEP Discussion Papers dp0958, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Fabio A. Miessi Sanches & Daniel Junior Silva & Sorawoot Srisuma, 2016. "Ordinary Least Squares Estimation Of A Dynamic Game Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(2), pages 623-634, May.
    6. George-Levi Gayle & Limor Golan, "undated". "Estimating a Dynamic Adverse Selection Model: Labor Force Experience and the Changing Gender Earnings Gap 1968-93," GSIA Working Papers 2006-E40, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    7. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard & Jonathan Levin, 2007. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1331-1370, September.
    8. Song Yao & Carl F. Mela, 2008. "A Dynamic Model of Sponsored Search Advertising," Working Papers 08-16, NET Institute, revised Sep 2008.
    9. Fabio A. Miessi Sanches & Daniel Silva Junior, Sorawoot Srisuma, 2014. "Ordinary Least Squares Estimation for a Dynamic Game," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2014_19, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP), revised 23 Feb 2015.
    10. Bart Bronnenberg & Jean Dubé & Carl Mela & Paulo Albuquerque & Tulin Erdem & Brett Gordon & Dominique Hanssens & Guenter Hitsch & Han Hong & Baohong Sun, 2008. "Measuring long-run marketing effects and their implications for long-run marketing decisions," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 367-382, December.
    11. Daniel Ackerberg & Xiaohong Chen & Jinyong Hahn, 2012. "A Practical Asymptotic Variance Estimator for Two-Step Semiparametric Estimators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 481-498, May.
    12. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2006. "Nonparametric Identification And Estimation Of Finite Mixture Models Of Dynamic Discrete Choices," Working Paper 1092, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    13. Daniel Ackerberg & Xiaohong Chen & Jinyong Hahn, 2011. "Asymptotic Variance Estimator for Two-Step Semiparametric Estimators," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1803, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    14. Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia & Yi, Fujin, 2012. "Ethanol Plant Investment in Canada: A Structural Model," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt7vd043zr, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    15. Norman Offstein, 2007. "An extortionary guerrilla movement," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(6), pages 995-1011.
    16. Lawell, Cynthia Lin & Yi, Fujin & Thome, Karen E, 2017. "The Effects of Subsidies and Mandates: A Dynamic Model of the Ethanol Industry," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt73n0t4pv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    17. Xiao, Mo & Orazem, Peter, 2006. "Do Entry Conditions Vary over Time? Entry and Competition in the Broadband Market: 1999-2003," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12500, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    18. Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2008. "Pseudo-likelihood estimation and bootstrap inference for structural discrete Markov decision models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 92-106, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L0 - Industrial Organization - - General
    • L5 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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