IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbb/reswpp/201712-332.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Pockets of risk in the Belgian mortgage market : Evidence from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS)

Author

Listed:
  • Philip Du Caju

    (Economics and Research Department, NBB)

Abstract

This paper complements macroeconomic indicators for macroprudential policy with information from microeconomic survey data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS), to identify pockets of risk in the Belgian mortgage market. It takes into account distributional aspects of debt and assets, with a special focus on the coverage of households’ mortgage debt by (liquid)financial assets. It identifies the share of outstanding mortgage debt that is possibly at risk, and the parts of the population most affected, on the basis of income and assets-related debt indicators. The first finding is that some groups of households have problems servicing their debt out of their income and some lack the financial resources to cope with income loss. The second finding is that Belgian households’ considerable financial wealth is (very) unequally distributed, and that therefore this wealth covers their outstanding mortgage debt only to a limited extent. As a consequence, a severe unemployment shock could hurt many mortgage-indebted households, involving a significant part of total outstanding mortgage debt in Belgium. All in all, this paper shows that survey data can complement macro data for macroprudential policy purposes.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Du Caju, 2017. "Pockets of risk in the Belgian mortgage market : Evidence from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS)," Working Paper Research 332, National Bank of Belgium.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:201712-332
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nbb.be/fr/articles/pockets-risk-belgian-mortgage-market-evidence-household-finance-and-consumption-survey-hfcs
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ph. Du Caju & Th. Roelandt & Chr. Van Nieuwenhuyze & M.-D. Zachary, 2014. "Household debt: evolution and distribution," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 61-81, September.
    2. Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Network, 2013. "The Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey - Methodological report," Statistics Paper Series 1, European Central Bank.
    3. Olympia Bover & Jose Maria Casado & Sonia Costa & Philip Du Caju & Yvonne McCarthy & Eva Sierminska & Panagiota Tzamourani & Ernesto Villanueva & Tibor Zavadil, 2016. "The Distribution of Debt across Euro-Area Countries: The Role of Individual Characteristics, Institutions, and Credit Conditions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 71-128, June.
    4. B. De Backer & Ph. Du Caju & M. Emiris & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2015. "Macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 47-65, December.
    5. Ph. Du Caju, 2016. "The distribution of household wealth in Belgium : initial findings of the second wave of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS)," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 27-43, september.
    6. Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Network, 2013. "The Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey - Results from the first wave," Statistics Paper Series 2, European Central Bank.
    7. Ph. Du Caju, 2013. "Structure and distribution of household wealth: An analysis based on the HFCS," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 41-62, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Philip Caju & Guillaume Périlleux & François Rycx & Ilan Tojerow, 2023. "A bigger house at the cost of an empty stomach? The effect of households’ indebtedness on their consumption: micro-evidence using Belgian HFCS data," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 291-333, March.
    2. Philip Du Caju, 2017. "Pockets of risk in the Belgian mortgage market - Evidence from the Household Finance and Consumption survey," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Data needs and Statistics compilation for macroprudential analysis, volume 46, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Ph. Du Caju & M. Emiris & Ch. Piette & M.-D. Zachary, 2018. "Shedding new light on the mortgage debt of households in Belgium," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 97-114, June.
    4. P. Reusens & Ch. Warisse, 2018. "House prices and economic growth in Belgium," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iv, pages 81-106, december.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Philip Du Caju, 2017. "Pockets of risk in the Belgian mortgage market - Evidence from the Household Finance and Consumption survey," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Data needs and Statistics compilation for macroprudential analysis, volume 46, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Ph. Du Caju & Th. Roelandt & Chr. Van Nieuwenhuyze & M.-D. Zachary, 2014. "Household debt: evolution and distribution," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 61-81, September.
    3. Stefan Jestl, 2019. "The Impact of Income Inequality on Household Indebtedness in Euro Area Countries," wiiw Working Papers 173, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    4. Ampudia, Miguel & van Vlokhoven, Has & Żochowski, Dawid, 2016. "Financial fragility of euro area households," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 250-262.
    5. Philip Du Caju & François Rycx & Ilan Tojerow, 2015. "Unemployment Risk and Over-indebtedness A Micro-econometric Perspective," Working Papers CEB 15-046, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Ph. Du Caju, 2016. "The distribution of household wealth in Belgium : initial findings of the second wave of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS)," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 27-43, september.
    7. Sell, Friedrich L. & Öllinger, Michael, 2015. "Towards equilibrium in income distribution: Theoretical background and empirical evidence for European countries," Working Papers in Economics 2015,1, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.
    8. Carsten Schröder & Charlotte Bartels & Markus M. Grabka & Johannes König & Martin Kroh & Rainer Siegers, 2020. "A Novel Sampling Strategy for Surveying High Net‐Worth Individuals—A Pretest Application Using the Socio‐Economic Panel," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(4), pages 825-849, December.
    9. Giovanni D'Alessio & Stefano Iezzi, 2016. "Over-indebtedness in Italy: how widespread and persistent is it?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 319, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Olympia Bover & Jose Maria Casado & Sonia Costa & Philip Du Caju & Yvonne McCarthy & Eva Sierminska & Panagiota Tzamourani & Ernesto Villanueva & Tibor Zavadil, 2016. "The Distribution of Debt across Euro-Area Countries: The Role of Individual Characteristics, Institutions, and Credit Conditions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 71-128, June.
    11. B. De Backer & Ph. Du Caju & M. Emiris & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2015. "Macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 47-65, December.
    12. Ampudia, Miguel & Ehrmann, Michael, 2017. "Macroeconomic experiences and risk taking of euro area households," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 146-156.
    13. Jan Pablo Burgard & Jan-Philipp Kolb & Hariolf Merkle & Ralf Münnich, 2017. "Synthetic data for open and reproducible methodological research in social sciences and official statistics," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 11(3), pages 233-244, December.
    14. Guo, Yanling & Sell, Friedrich L., 2020. "Equilibrium and convergence in personal income distribution? How European countries performed during a phase of huge economic turbulence (2004-2017)," Working Papers in Economics 2020,1, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.
    15. Aurélien Espic & Lisa Kerdelhué & Julien Matheron, 2024. "Capital Requirements in Light of Monetary Tightening," Working papers 947, Banque de France.
    16. Ph. Du Caju & M. Emiris & Ch. Piette & M.-D. Zachary, 2018. "Shedding new light on the mortgage debt of households in Belgium," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 97-114, June.
    17. Sá, Diogo, 2022. "Liquidity constraints and fiscal multipliers," MPRA Paper 112132, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Neves Costa, Rita & Pérez-Duarte, Sébastien, 2019. "Not all inequality measures were created equal - The measurement of wealth inequality, its decompositions, and an application to European household wealth," Statistics Paper Series 31, European Central Bank.
    19. Malmendier, Ulrike M. & Steiny Wellsjo, Alex, 2020. "Rent or Buy? The Role of Lifetime Experiences on Homeownership within and across Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 14935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Kacper Grejcz & Zbigniew Żółkiewski, 2017. "Household wealth in Poland: the results of a new survey of household finance," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 48(3), pages 295-326.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Household finance; Financial Fragility; Mortgage markets; Survey; HFCS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • K35 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Personal Bankruptcy Law

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:201712-332. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bnbgvbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.