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Spatial and Temporal Responses to an Emissions Trading System Covering Agriculture and Forestry: Simulation Results from New Zealand

Author

Listed:
  • Suzi Kerr

    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

  • Simon Anastasiadis

    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

  • Alex Olssen

    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

  • William Power

    (GNS Science)

  • Levente Tímár

    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research and GNS Science)

  • Wei Zhang

    (Ministry for Primary Industries)

Abstract

We perform simulations using the integrated Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model to analyse the effect of various New Zealand emissions trading scheme (ETS) scenarios on land-use, emissions, and output in a temporally and spatially explicit manner. We compare the impact of afforestation to the impact of other land-use change on net greenhouse gas emissions, and evaluate the importance of the forestry component of the ETS relative to the agricultural component. We also examine the effect of land-use change on the time profile of net emissions from the forestry sector. Our projections for the mid-2020s suggest that under a comprehensive ETS, sequestration associated with new planting could be significant; it may approach 20 percent of national inventory agricultural emissions in 2008. Most of this is driven by the reward for forestry rather than a liability for agricultural emissions. Finally, we present projections of future agricultural output under various policy scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Suzi Kerr & Simon Anastasiadis & Alex Olssen & William Power & Levente Tímár & Wei Zhang, 2012. "Spatial and Temporal Responses to an Emissions Trading System Covering Agriculture and Forestry: Simulation Results from New Zealand," Working Papers 12_10, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:12_10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ruben N. Lubowski & Andrew J. Plantinga & Robert N. Stavins, 2008. "What Drives Land-Use Change in the United States? A National Analysis of Landowner Decisions," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 84(4), pages 529-550.
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    10. Joanna Hendy & Suzi Kerr & Troy Baisden, 2007. "The Land Use in Rural New Zealand Model Version 1 (LURNZv1: Model Description)," Working Papers 07_07, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    11. Elena G. Irwin, 2002. "Interacting agents, spatial externalities and the evolution of residential land use patterns," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 31-54, January.
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    14. Suzi Kerr & Wei Zhang, 2009. "Allocation of New Zealand Units within Agriculture in the New Zealand Emissions Trading System," Working Papers 09_16, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    15. Stavins, Robert N & Jaffe, Adam B, 1990. "Unintended Impacts of Public Investments on Private Decisions: The Depletion of Forested Wetlands," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 337-352, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Carver & Patrick Dawson & Suzi Kerr, 2017. "Including Forestry in an Emissions Trading Scheme: Lessons from New Zealand," Working Papers 17_11, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    2. Levente Timar & Suzi Kerr, 2014. "Land-use Intensity and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the LURNZ Model," Working Papers 14_03, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    3. Indrakumar Vetharaniam & Levente Timar & C. Jill Stanley & Karin Müller & Carlo van den Dijssel & Brent Clothier, 2022. "Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Location Suitability and Spatial Footprint of Apple and Kiwifruit," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-27, September.
    4. Levente Timar, 2016. "Does money grow on trees? Mitigation under climate policy in a heterogeneous sheep-beef sector," Working Papers 16_09, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    5. Indrakumar Vetharaniam & Karin Müller & C. Jill Stanley & Carlo van den Dijssel & Levente Timar & Brent Clothier, 2022. "Modelling Continuous Location Suitability Scores and Spatial Footprint of Apple and Kiwifruit in New Zealand," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-22, September.
    6. Levente Timar, 2016. "Yield to Change: Modelling the Land-use Response to Climate-Driven Changes in Pasture Production," Working Papers 16_15, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    7. Manley, Bruce, 2018. "Forecasting the effect of carbon price and log price on the afforestation rate in New Zealand," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 112-120.
    8. Fraser J Morgan & Adam J Daigneault, 2015. "Estimating Impacts of Climate Change Policy on Land Use: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(5), pages 1-20, May.
    9. Thomas Wilson & Miles Grafton & Matthew Irwin, 2023. "Comparing the Carbon Storage Potential of Naturally Regenerated Tea Trees with Default New Zealand Carbon Look-Up Tables: A Case Study," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-12, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    land use; land-use change; LURNZ; greenhouse-gas emissions; afforestation; forestry removals; New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme; integrated modelling; agricultural production;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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