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Tax, Credit Constraints, and the Big Costs of Small Inflation

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  • Andrew Coleman

    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

Abstract

This paper develops an overlapping generations model incorporating credit constraints, owner-occupier and rental sectors, and detailed tax regulations to examine how the interaction of inflation and the tax system affect the housing market. It shows that even modest rates of inflation can have very large effects on the home-ownership rates of young households, particularly at low real interest rates. This occurs even if there is a large supply response in the quantity of housing. The model suggests that the welfare costs of inflation could be ameliorated by exempting the inflation component of interest payments from income tax.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Coleman, 2008. "Tax, Credit Constraints, and the Big Costs of Small Inflation," Working Papers 08_14, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:08_14
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    File URL: https://motu-www.motu.org.nz/wpapers/08_14.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Franco Modigliani, 1976. "Some Economic Implications of the Indexing of Financial Assets with Special Reference to Mortgages," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Mario Monti (ed.), The ‘New Inflation’ and Monetary Policy, chapter 3, pages 90-141, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Sven Rady, 1998. "Housing Market Fluctuations in a Life-Cycle Economy with Credit Constraints," FMG Discussion Papers dp296, Financial Markets Group.
    3. Kearl, J R, 1979. "Inflation, Mortgages, and Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 1115-1138, October.
    4. Roger H. Gordon & James R. Hines, Jr. & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Notes on the Tax Treatment of Structures," NBER Chapters, in: The Effects of Taxation on Capital Accumulation, pages 223-258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Martin S. Feldstein, 1999. "Capital Income Taxes and the Benefit of Price Stability," NBER Chapters, in: The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability, pages 9-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Joel Slemrod, 1982. "Down-Payment Constraints: Tax Policy Effects in a Growing Economy With Rental and Owner-Occupied Housing," Public Finance Review, , vol. 10(2), pages 193-217, April.
    7. Andrew Coleman, 2007. "Credit constraints and housing markets in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/11, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    8. Martin S. Feldstein, 1997. "The Costs and Benefits of Going from Low Inflation to Price Stability," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 123-166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. François Ortalo-Magné & Sven Rady, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints ," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(2), pages 459-485.
    10. James R. Hines, Jr., 1987. "The Tax Treatment of Structures," NBER Chapters, in: Taxes and Capital Formation, pages 37-50, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Bailey, Martin J, 1974. "Progressivity and Investment Yields under U.S. Income Taxation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1157-1175, Nov.-Dec..
    12. Aaron, Henry J, 1976. "Inflation and the Income Tax," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 193-199, May.
    13. Fumio Hayashi & Takatoshi Ito & Joel Slemrod, 1987. "Housing Finance Imperfections and Private Saving: A Comparative Simulation Analysis of the U.S. and Japan," NBER Working Papers 2272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Nowotny, Ewald, 1980. "Inflation and Taxation: Reviewing the Macroeconomic Issues," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 1025-1049, September.
    15. Fischer, Stanley & Summers, Lawrence H, 1989. "Should Governments Learn to Live with Inflation?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 382-387, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Coleman, 2017. "Housing, the ‘Great Income Tax Experiment’, and the intergenerational consequences of the lease," Working Papers 17_09, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    2. Andrew Coleman, 2010. "The long-term effects of capital gains taxes in New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 159-177.
    3. Andrew Coleman, 2017. "Housing, the ‘Great Income Tax Experiment’, and the intergenerational consequences of the lease," Working Papers 1709, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2017.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; credit constraints; capital income taxes; housing markets; home-ownership rates; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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