Studio di un indicatore per la valutazione del rischio delprogetto nella metodologia dell’analisi costi benefici - Proposed risk indicators in the cost-benefit analisys methodology

Cost-benefit analysis allows to assess in advance the performance of investment projects through the calculation of appropriate indices, such as the NPV, the IRR, the B/C ratio. Performance indicators are, however, affected by the uncertainty inherent in the exercise of forecasting the future values of the physical and economic parameters generated by the project. Probability distribution of the expected values of each performance indicator can be determined, e.g., through Montecarlo simulations of the CBA model. Derived from the simulated probability distribution, the paper, starting from the definition of the loss function in the statistical decision theory, proposes a set of risk indicators (Index of absolute risk, Index of internal relative risk, Index of generalized relative risk), which include a "weight" function that models the level of aversion against the expected loss of the performance indices by the person who will bear the project risk.