IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mse/cesdoc/15026.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Model Risk - From Epistemology to Management. Ipse se nihil scire id unum sciat. (Socrates' Plato)

Author

Abstract

One of the main concern and regulatory topic financial institutions have to deal with is the model risk. Senior managers tend to consider more and more model risk as one of the highest exposure a financial institution has (as illustrated by the latest EBA paper related to Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA) for Operational Risk Capital calculation). Though, while the concept seems relatively simple, the definition of the model risk (traditional and regulatory), the origins of this one (from dogmas to mis-use) and the way to manage it (from engineering conservatism into models to a proper governance process) are not necessarily well handled by practitioners, academics and regulators. Giving a clear definition and understanding the root cause of a model failure allows adopting the appropriate management style to deal with the potential issue that could lead to dramatic failures. In this paper we are proposing an analysis of the model risk trying to understand the main issues leading to the failure and the best way to address them

Suggested Citation

  • Bertrand K Hassani, 2015. "Model Risk - From Epistemology to Management. Ipse se nihil scire id unum sciat. (Socrates' Plato)," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15026, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  • Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:15026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand K. Hassani, 2011. "Operational risk: A Basel II++ step before Basel III," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 11053r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Mar 2012.
    2. Kjersti Aas & Daniel Berg, 2009. "Models for construction of multivariate dependence - a comparison study," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7-8), pages 639-659.
    3. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2014. "Distortion Risk Measures or the Transformation of Unimodal Distributions into Multimodal Functions," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00969242, HAL.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    5. Acerbi, Carlo & Tasche, Dirk, 2002. "On the coherence of expected shortfall," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1487-1503, July.
    6. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2014. "Distortion Risk Measures or the Transformation of Unimodal Distributions into Multimodal Functions," Post-Print halshs-00969242, HAL.
    7. Joe, Harry, 2005. "Asymptotic efficiency of the two-stage estimation method for copula-based models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 401-419, June.
    8. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    9. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2011. "Operational risk: A Basel II++ step before Basel III," Post-Print halshs-00639484, HAL.
    10. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2012. "Operational risk : A Basel II++ step before Basel III," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00722029, HAL.
    11. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00722029 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June.
    13. Rockafellar, R. Tyrrell & Uryasev, Stanislav, 2002. "Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1443-1471, July.
    14. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hal:journl:halshs-01163837 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bertrand K. Hassani, 2015. "Model Risk – From Epistemology to Management. Ipse se nihil scire id unum sciat. (Socrates' Plato)," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01163837, HAL.
    3. Bertrand K. Hassani, 2014. "Risk Appetite in Practice: Vulgaris Mathematica," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01020293, HAL.
    4. Bertrand K Hassani, 2014. "Risk Appetite in Practice: Vulgaris Mathematica," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14037, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    5. Bertrand K. Hassani, 2014. "Risk Appetite in Practice: Vulgaris Mathematica," Post-Print halshs-01020293, HAL.
    6. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand K. Hassani, 2019. "Risk Measurement," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-02119256, HAL.
    7. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand K Hassani, 2014. "Stress Testing Engineering: the real risk measurement?," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14006, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    8. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2014. "Stress Testing Engineering: the real risk measurement?," Post-Print halshs-00951593, HAL.
    9. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    10. De Lira Salvatierra, Irving & Patton, Andrew J., 2015. "Dynamic copula models and high frequency data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 120-135.
    11. Al Janabi, Mazin A.M. & Arreola Hernandez, Jose & Berger, Theo & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2017. "Multivariate dependence and portfolio optimization algorithms under illiquid market scenarios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(3), pages 1121-1131.
    12. Ormos, Mihály & Timotity, Dusán, 2016. "Generalized asset pricing: Expected Downside Risk-based equilibrium modeling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 967-980.
    13. Del Brio, Esther B. & Mora-Valencia, Andrés & Perote, Javier, 2020. "Risk quantification for commodity ETFs: Backtesting value-at-risk and expected shortfall," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    14. Patton, Andrew, 2013. "Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 899-960, Elsevier.
    15. Weiß, Gregor N.F., 2011. "Are Copula-GoF-tests of any practical use? Empirical evidence for stocks, commodities and FX futures," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 173-188, May.
    16. Brechmann Eike Christain & Czado Claudia, 2013. "Risk management with high-dimensional vine copulas: An analysis of the Euro Stoxx 50," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 30(4), pages 307-342, December.
    17. H. Fink & S. Geissel & J. Sass & F. T. Seifried, 2019. "Implied risk aversion: an alternative rating system for retail structured products," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 357-387, October.
    18. Christina Erlwein & Gautam Mitra & Diana Roman, 2012. "HMM based scenario generation for an investment optimisation problem," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 193(1), pages 173-192, March.
    19. Christensen, Troels Sønderby & Pircalabu, Anca & Høg, Esben, 2019. "A seasonal copula mixture for hedging the clean spark spread with wind power futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 64-80.
    20. Stavros Stavroyiannis, 2016. "Value-at-Risk and backtesting with the APARCH model and the standardized Pearson type IV distribution," Papers 1602.05749, arXiv.org.
    21. Govindan, Rajesh & Al-Ansari, Tareq, 2019. "Computational decision framework for enhancing resilience of the energy, water and food nexus in risky environments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 653-668.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Model Risk; Operational Risk; Risk Management; Risk Measurement; Epistemology;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:15026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lucie Label (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cenp1fr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.