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Modeling Lifetime Earnings Paths: Hypothetical versus Actual Workers

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Au

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Olivia S. Mitchell

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • John W. R. Phillips

    (Social Security Administration)

Abstract

To assess the distributional effects of social security reform proposals, it is essential to have good information on real-world workers’ lifetime earnings trajectories. Until recently, however, policymakers have relied on hypothetical earnings profiles for policy analysis. We use actual lifetime earnings data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to compare actual workers’ covered earnings profiles to these hypothetical profiles. We show that the hypothetical profiles do not track earnings patterns of current retirees; thus lifetime pay levels are much higher than for most HRS workers. Therefore, using hypothetical profiles could misrepresent benefits paid and taxes collected under such reforms.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Au & Olivia S. Mitchell & John W. R. Phillips, 2004. "Modeling Lifetime Earnings Paths: Hypothetical versus Actual Workers," Working Papers wp074, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:mrr:papers:wp074
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    File URL: http://mrdrc.isr.umich.edu/publications/Papers/pdf/wp074.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gustman, Alan L. & Steinmeier, Thomas L., 2001. "How effective is redistribution under the social security benefit formula?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 1-28, October.
    2. John F. Cogan & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2003. "Perspectives from the President's Commission on Social Security Reform," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 149-172, Spring.
    3. John Karl Scholz & Ananth Seshadri & Surachai Khitatrakun, 2006. "Are Americans Saving "Optimally" for Retirement?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(4), pages 607-643, August.
    4. Josh O’Harra & John Sabelhaus & Michael Simpson, 2004. "Overview of the Congressional Budget Office Long-Term (CBOLT) Policy Simulation Model: Technical Paper 2004-01," Working Papers 15188, Congressional Budget Office.
    5. Cunningham, Christopher R. & Engelhardt, Gary V., 2002. "Federal Tax Policy, Employer Matching, and 401(K) Saving: Evidence From HRS W-2 Records," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 55(3), pages 617-645, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas L. Hungerford, 2006. "The role of earnings and financial risk in distributional analyses of Social Security reform measures," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 417-438.
    2. Michael D. Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2015. "Measuring Economic Preparation for Retirement: Income Versus Consumption," Working Papers wp332, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    3. Wade D. Pfau, 2009. "How Representative are Representative Workers? An Assessment of the Hypothetical Workers Commonly Used in Social Security Studies," Journal of Income Distribution, Ad libros publications inc., vol. 18(2), pages 92-117, June.
    4. Wei Sun & Teresa Ghilarducci & Michael Papadopoulos & Anthony Webb, 2019. "The Impact of a Social Security Proposal for "Catch-Up" Contributions," SCEPA working paper series. 2019-03, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    5. Wade D. Pfau, 2008. "Assessing the Applicability of Hypothetical Workers for Defined-Contribution Pensions," GRIPS Discussion Papers 07-11, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.

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