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La pauvreté a-t-elle diminué ou augmenté au Burkina Faso ? Evidence empirique fondée sur une approche non monétaire micro-multidimensionnelle

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  • Jean-Pierre Lachaud

    (GED, Université Montesquieu-Bordeaux IV)

Abstract

L'étude propose de contribuer au débat qui prévaut quant à la dynamique de pauvreté au Burkina Faso entre 1998 et 2003, et présente une nouvelle évidence empirique de cette dernière en termes non monétaires. L'analyse produit deux conclusions. En premier lieu, la mise en évidence récente par la Banque mondiale d'une diminution de la pauvreté, fondée sur l'élaboration d'un indicateur partiel des dépenses des ménages - dont le niveau pour 1998 est quasiment influencé par le seul « retrait » d'un « facteur de correction saisonnier », introduit « confidentiellement » à cette date en vue d'une comparaison avec 1994 -, soulève plusieurs questionnements. Premièrement, le processus de diffusion de l'information s'avère insuffisant, voire incohérent. Deuxièmement, l'introduction du facteur de correction, uniquement en référence à l'évolution des comptes nationaux, est à contre-courant de ce qu'enseigne la littérature. D'ailleurs, la présente étude produit des estimations de la pauvreté, fondées sur la comptabilité macro-économique, précisément cohérentes avec celles qui omettent le facteur de correction de 12,5 pour cent en 1998. En outre, l'augmentation possible de la consommation en période post-récolte en 1994, comparativement à la période de soudure de 1998, a pu être compensée par l'effet d’une période de référence plus longue en 1994 qu'en 1998 ou 2003 - 30 jours contre 15 jours -, en ce qui concerne la mesure de la consommation alimentaire. Dans ces conditions, la stabilité de la pauvreté entre 1994 et 2003 est fortement probable. Troisièmement, il est hasardeux d'inférer une dynamique du niveau de vie monétaire des ménages fondée sur l'évolution d'indicateurs non monétaires partiels : on peut identifier autant d'indicateurs partiels des capabilités ayant eu une évolution favorable - alphabétisation, scolarisation - que défavorable - malnutrition et mortalité des enfants. Quatrièmement, l'absence de dissociation ex ante des types de pauvreté par rapport à la vulnérabilité, c'est-à-dire de distinction entre la pauvreté chronique et transitoire, appauvrit l'analyse. En deuxième lieu, ces questionnements conduisent à tester la dynamique des privations par rapport à la disponibilité d'un ensemble d'actifs : possession d'actifs physiques au niveau des familles, ampleur du capital humain en termes d'éducation, et ressources sociales appréhendées par les envois de fonds nationaux et étrangers. La principale conclusion qui émane de l'étude est une relative stabilité - voire, une légère augmentation - de la pauvreté au cours de la période 1998-2003. D'une part, une analyse en composantes principales non linéaire suggère, au niveau national, une stabilisation de la pauvreté non monétaire, quels que soient les seuils de référence - 25e et 40e percentiles - et les mesures cardinales utilisées - incidence, intensité et inégalité. La robustesse de ce résultat est vérifiée à la fois par la statistique et les mesures ordinales de la pauvreté non monétaire. D'autre part, la prise en compte d'un indicateur micro-multidimensionnel et la considération de la statistique, montrent que l'incidence de la pauvreté non monétaire nationale a faiblement augmenté entre 1998 et 2003, alors que la profondeur et l'inégalité des privations sont demeurées stables. Dans ce contexte, le rôle des transferts dans l'explication de la pauvreté non monétaire est prédominant. En définitive, les approches non monétaires de la pauvreté ne confirment pas le déclin de cette dernière en termes monétaire entre 1998 et 2003, suggéré par la récente étude de la Banque mondiale. Elles sont plutôt cohérentes avec les estimations qui ont été faites à l'aide des données originelles de l'INSD de 1998. Bien que les approches non monétaires de la pauvreté se réfèrent davantage à des indices de moyen ou de long terme du bien-être des ménages, l'incertitude quant à la dynamique de pauvreté au Burkina Faso demeure. The study proposes to contribute to the debate which prevails as for the dynamics of poverty in Burkina Faso between 1998 and 2003, and presents a new empirical evidence of the latter in non-monetary terms. The analysis produces two conclusions. First of all, the recent description by the World Bank of a reduction in poverty, based on a partial indicator of the household expenses - whose level for 1998 is almost influenced by the only « withdrawal» of a « seasonal factor of correction », introduced « confidentially » on this date for a comparison with 1994 -, raises several questions. Firstly, the process of diffusion of information proves to be insufficient, even incoherent. Secondly, the introduction of the factor of correction, only in reference to the evolution of the national accounts, is against the conclusions of the literature. Furthermore, the present study produces estimates of poverty, based on macro-economic accountancy, precisely coherent with those which omit the factor of correction of 12.5 percent in 1998. Moreover, the possible increase in consumption in post-harvest period in 1994, compared to the pre-harvest period of 1998, could be compensated by the effect of the longer reference period in 1994 than in 1998 or 2003 - 30 days against 15 days -, with regard to the measurement of food consumption. Under these conditions, the stability of poverty between 1994 and 2003 is strongly probable. Thirdly, it is hazardous to characterize a dynamics of the households monetary welfare based on the evolution of partial non-monetary indicators: one can identify as many partial indicators of capabilities having had a favorable evolution - illiteracy, schooling - that unfavorable - malnutrition and child mortality. Fourthly, the absence of an ex ante dissociation of the types of poverty in relation to the vulnerability, i.e. the distinction between chronic and transitory poverty, impoverishes the analysis. In second place, these questions conduce to test the dynamics of the deprivations based on the availability of assets: possession of physical assets by the families, importance of human capital in terms of education, and social resources apprehended by the national and foreign remittances. The main conclusion which emanates from the study is a relative stability of poverty - even a weak increase - during the period 1998-2003. On the one hand, a nonlinear principal components analysis suggests, at the national level, a stability of the non-monetary poverty, whatever the thresholds of reference - 25e and 40e percentiles - and cardinal measurements used - incidence, intensity and inequality. The robustness of this result is checked at the same time by the statistics and ordinal measurements of non-monetary poverty. In addition, the use of a micro-multidimensional indicator and the consideration of the statistics, show that the incidence of the national non-monetary poverty slightly increased between 1998 and 2003, whereas the intensity and the inequality of the deprivations remained stable. In this context, the role of the remittances in the explanation of non-monetary poverty is prevalent. Finally, the non-monetary approaches of poverty do not confirm the decline of the latter in monetary terms between 1998 and 2003, suggested by the recent study of the World Bank. They are rather coherent with the estimates which were made using the original data of the INSD of 1998. Although the non-monetary approaches of poverty refer rather to middle or long term indices of welfare of the households, uncertainty as for the dynamics of poverty in Burkina Faso remains. (Full text in french)

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Pierre Lachaud, 2004. "La pauvreté a-t-elle diminué ou augmenté au Burkina Faso ? Evidence empirique fondée sur une approche non monétaire micro-multidimensionnelle," Documents de travail 103, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
  • Handle: RePEc:mon:ceddtr:103
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean-Yves Duclos & David E. Sahn & Stephen D. Younger, 2006. "Robust Multidimensional Poverty Comparisons," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(514), pages 943-968, October.
    2. Sahn, David E. & Stifel, David C., 2000. "Poverty Comparisons Over Time and Across Countries in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2123-2155, December.
    3. World Bank, 2003. "World Development Indicators 2003," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13920.
    4. Fofack, Hippolyte & Monga, Celestin & Tuluy, Hasan, 2001. "Household welfare and poverty dynamics in Burkina Faso : empirical evidence from household surveys," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2590, The World Bank.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

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