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Technology shocks, structural breaks and the effects on the business cycle

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  • Atella, Vincenzo
  • Centoni, Marco
  • Cubadda, Gianluca

Abstract

This paper contributes to the literature on the role of technology shocks as source of the business cycle in two ways. First, we document that time-series of US productivity and hours are apparently affected by a structural break in the late 60’s, which is likely due to a major change in the monetary policy. Second, we show that the importance of demand shocks over the business cycle has sharply increased after the break.

Suggested Citation

  • Atella, Vincenzo & Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca, 2007. "Technology shocks, structural breaks and the effects on the business cycle," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp07041, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:mol:ecsdps:esdp07041
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    1. Gali, Jordi & Lopez-Salido, J. David & Valles, Javier, 2003. "Technology shocks and monetary policy: assessing the Fed's performance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 723-743, May.
    2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    3. Atella, Vincenzo & Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca, 2008. "Technology shocks, structural breaks and the effects on the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 392-395, September.
    4. Candelon, Bertrand & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2001. "On the reliability of Chow-type tests for parameter constancy in multivariate dynamic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 155-160, November.
    5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    6. Duffy, John & Engle-Warnick, Jim, 2006. "Multiple Regimes in U.S. Monetary Policy? A Nonparametric Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1363-1377, August.
    7. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March.
    8. Bertrand Candelon & Gianluca Cubadda, 2006. "Testing for Parameter Stability in Dynamic Models across Frequencies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 741-760, December.
    9. Luca Gambetti & Jordi Galí, 2009. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 26-57, January.
    10. Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca, 2003. "Measuring the business cycle effects of permanent and transitory shocks in cointegrated time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 45-51, July.
    11. Thomas Mayer, 1999. "Monetary Policy and the Great Inflation in the United States," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1601.
    12. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    13. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Jushan Bai & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1998. "Testing For and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432.
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    Cited by:

    1. Atella, Vincenzo & Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca, 2008. "Technology shocks, structural breaks and the effects on the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 392-395, September.
    2. Cubadda, Gianluca & Triacca, Umberto, 2011. "An alternative solution to the Autoregressivity Paradox in time series analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1451-1454, May.
    3. Jaroensathapornkul, Jirawat, 2020. "Impacts of Technological Shock on the Agricultural Business Cycle," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 54(1), pages 1-17.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle; technology shocks; structural breaks.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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