La relazione tra credito e comportamento suicidario in Italia

In this study we assessed the relation between suicide rates and credit cycle in Italy between 1990 and 2014, by means of fixed effects panel regressions, stratified by age, gender, and region. We also tested the possible mitigating role played by active labor market programs, public unemployment spending and overall expenditure in social protection measures. Credit cycle was proxied by the rate of growth of the credit to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio. The analysis pointed out that in Italy credit cycle and suicide rates are complementary: when the former decreases, the latter increase. This association is noticeable among men: a decrease of 1% in the rate of growth of the credit to GDP ratio induces an increase of around 1.18-1.31% in the suicide rate. Young men aged 25-34 seem more vulnerable to this phenomenon. The association between credit cycle and suicidal behavior is noticeable both during normal and abnormal time periods (in this study, the latter is represented by the late-2000s financial crisis), in particular, among men aged 34-44. In contrast, suicidal behaviors among women do not seem to be influenced by credit cycle, but only by severe economic crises. With respect to social protection measures, only the amount of public unemployment spending proved to significantly moderate the relation between suicides and credit cycle, though with a regional specificity (only in the North-East of Italy). Our study suggests that access to credit may be a major determinant of psychological well-being for men, but not for women, both during normal times and during severe economic recessions. Also, both credit and social protection measures might be considered proxies of social capital, which are potentially able to counterbalance the increased level of anomie that may accompany periods of financial instability. Further research is needed to test the validity of our findings and assumptions in case of other countries.