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Is a word to the wise indeed enough? ECB statements and the predictability of interest rate decisions

Author

Listed:
  • David-Jan Jansen

    (De Nederlandsche Bank)

  • Jakob de Haan

    (Rijksuniversiteit Groningen)

Abstract

We show that comments by euro area central bankers contain information on future ECB interest rate decisions, but that the comments mainly reflect recent developments in macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, models using only communication variables are outperformed by straightforward Taylor rule models. During the first years of the European Economic and Monetary Union, comments by ECB Executive Board members and high-level Bundesbank policy-makers were more informative than comments by national central bank presidents. We also find that differences of opinion were informative when they concerned the outlook for economic growth. Finally, our results suggest that the ECB used communication especially to signal interest rate increases

Suggested Citation

  • David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Is a word to the wise indeed enough? ECB statements and the predictability of interest rate decisions," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 37, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc06:37
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    File URL: http://repec.org/mmf2006/up.13813.1144246609.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
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    4. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2006. "Look who's talking: ECB communication during the first years of EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 219-228.
    5. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "Communication and decision-making by central bank committees: different strategies, same effectiveness?," Working Paper Series 488, European Central Bank.
    6. Friedrich Heinemann & Katrin Ullrich, 2007. "Does it Pay to Watch Central Bankers’ Lips? The Information Content of ECB Wording," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 143(II), pages 155-185, June.
    7. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
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    9. Michael R. Pakko, 2005. "On the Information Content of Asymmetric FOMC Policy Statements: Evidence From a Taylor-Rule Perspective," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(3), pages 558-569, July.
    10. Gerlach, Stefan, 2004. "Interest Rate Setting by the ECB: Words and Deeds," CEPR Discussion Papers 4775, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    12. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2006. "Look who's talking: ECB communication during the first years of EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 219-228.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Berlemann & Kai Hielscher, 2012. "Output sensitivity of monetary policy and macroeconomic performance," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(15), pages 1505-1509, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    central bank communication; ECB; interest rate decisions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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