IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mkg/wpaper/0802.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Leveraged carry trade portfolios

Author

Listed:
  • Zsolt Darvas

Abstract

Studying all possible pairs of eleven major currencies and eleven portfolios in 1976-2008 we show that, when there is no leverage, carry trade is significantly profitable for most currency pairs and portfolios. Positive returns do not diminish in time providing a strong case against the hypothesis of uncovered interest rate parity. We explain these findings with the leveraged nature of carry trade: leverage may increase profitability but it materially increases downside risk. We argue that market inefficiency is related to the level of leverage.

Suggested Citation

  • Zsolt Darvas, 2008. "Leveraged carry trade portfolios," Working Papers 0802, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest, revised 18 Jun 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:mkg:wpaper:0802
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://web.uni-corvinus.hu/matkg/working_papers/wp_2008_2_darvas.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kuntara Pukthuanthong & Lee R. Thomas Lee R. Thomas III & Carlos Bazan, 2007. "Random walk currency futures profits revisited," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(3), pages 263-286, July.
    2. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 853-891.
    3. Hyun Song Shin & Masazumi Hattori, 2009. "The Broad Yen Carry Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & David S Hoelscher & George G Kaufman (ed.), Globalization And Systemic Risk, chapter 11, pages 169-189, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, "undated". "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," Working Paper 71001, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    5. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
    6. Christian Dunis & Jia Miao, 2007. "Trading foreign exchange portfolios with volatility filters: the carry model revisited," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 249-255.
    7. Dueker, Michael & Neely, Christopher J., 2007. "Can Markov switching models predict excess foreign exchange returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 279-296, February.
    8. Belaire-Franch, Jorge & Opong, Kwaku K., 2005. "Some evidence of random walk behavior of Euro exchange rates using ranks and signs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1631-1643, July.
    9. Longstaff, Francis A., 2000. "The term structure of very short-term rates: New evidence for the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 397-415, December.
    10. Martin Eichenbaum & Craig Burnside & Sergio Rebelo, 2007. "The Returns to Currency Speculation in Emerging Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 333-338, May.
    11. Bank for International Settlements, 2007. "Research on global financial stability: the use of BIS international financial statistics," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 29, december.
    12. Olson, Dennis, 2004. "Have trading rule profits in the currency markets declined over time?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 85-105, January.
    13. Alain P. Chaboud & Joseph E. Gagnon, 2007. "What can the data tell us about carry trades in Japanese yen?," International Finance Discussion Papers 899, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Gabriele Galati & Alexandra Heath & Patrick McGuire, 2007. "Evidence of carry trade activity," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    15. Kuntara Pukthuanthong & Lee R. Thomas Lee R. Thomas III & Carlos Bazan, 2007. "Random walk currency futures profits revisited," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(3), pages 263-286, July.
    16. Yang, Jian & Su, Xiaojing & Kolari, James W., 2008. "Do Euro exchange rates follow a martingale? Some out-of-sample evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 729-740, May.
    17. Chris Becker & Kristina Clifton, 2007. "Hedge fund activity and carry trades," CGFS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Research on global financial stability: the use of BIS international financial statistics, volume 29, pages 156-175, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Driessen, Joost & Laeven, Luc, 2007. "International portfolio diversification benefits: Cross-country evidence from a local perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1693-1712, June.
    19. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    20. Villanueva, O. Miguel, 2007. "Forecasting Currency Excess Returns: Can the Forward Bias Be Exploited?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 963-990, December.
    21. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
    22. Kuntara Pukthuanthong & Lee R. Thomas Lee R. Thomas III & Carlos Bazan, 2007. "Random walk currency futures profits revisited," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(3), pages 263-286, July.
    23. Lee R. Thomas III, 1986. "Random walk profits in currency futures trading," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 109-125, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fong, Wai Mun, 2010. "A stochastic dominance analysis of yen carry trades," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1237-1246, June.
    2. Christiansen, Charlotte & Ranaldo, Angelo & Söderlind, Paul, 2011. "The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(4), pages 1107-1125, August.
    3. repec:gla:glaewp:2023-03 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Dr. Shakill Hassan & Sean Smith, 2011. "The Rand as a Carry Trade Target Risk Returns and Policy Implications," Working Papers 4878, South African Reserve Bank.
    5. Egbers, Tom & Swinkels, Laurens, 2015. "Can implied volatility predict returns on the currency carry trade?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 14-26.
    6. Ali Shehadeh & Peter Erdos & Youwei Li & Michael Moore, 2016. "US Dollar Carry Trades in the Era of "Cheap Money"," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(5), pages 374-404, October.
    7. Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Risk-premia, carry-trade dynamics, and economic value of currency speculation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1195-1219.
    8. Bhatti, Razzaque H., 2014. "The existence of uncovered interest parity in the CIS countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 227-241.
    9. Aidan Corcoran, 2009. "The Determinants of Carry Trade Risk Premia," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp287, IIIS.
    10. Doukas, John A. & Zhang, Hao, 2013. "The performance of NDF carry trades," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 172-190.
    11. Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2012. "Currency momentum strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 660-684.
    12. Ames, Matthew & Bagnarosa, Guillaume & Peters, Gareth W., 2017. "Violations of uncovered interest rate parity and international exchange rate dependences," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 162-187.
    13. Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Taylor, Mark P. & Wang, Zigan & Li, Yan, 2024. "The out-of-sample performance of carry trades," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    14. Orlov, Vitaly & Äijö, Janne, 2015. "Benefits of wavelet-based carry trade diversification," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 17-32.
    15. Bruno Freitas Boynard de Vasconcelos & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2014. "Banking Systemic Risk, Foreign Funding, Exchange Rate Exposure and Carry Trade: is there a relation?," Working Papers Series 365, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    16. Norman C. Miller, 2014. "Exchange Rate Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14981.
    17. Jylhä, Petri & Suominen, Matti, 2011. "Speculative capital and currency carry trades," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 60-75, January.
    18. Coudert, Virginie & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "The “forward premium puzzle” and the sovereign default risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 491-511.
    19. Karen K. Lewis, 2011. "Global Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 435-466, December.
    20. Sager, Michael & Taylor, Mark P., 2014. "Generating currency trading rules from the term structure of forward foreign exchange premia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 230-250.
    21. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bootstrap; currency market; diversification; interest rate differential; leverage; uncovered interest rate parity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mkg:wpaper:0802. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Balazs Varga (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mkbkehu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.