IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mil/wpdepa/2007-36.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Measuring and managing credit risk in SMEs: a quantitative and qualitative rating model

Author

Listed:
  • Ivan DE NONI
  • Antonio LORENZON
  • Luigi ORSI

Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to develop a qualitative and quantitative credit risk rating model for SMEs. The scope of this model is to assign, through a discriminant function (see Altman,1969), a synthetic judgment of the firm management ( ). First of all it must characterize variables that multiplied for a weighted coefficient allow us to determine a score of the analyzed enterprises. The classification is based on a discriminating function that maximize the variance of the variables among the firms of two groups and to minimize the variance among the firms of the same group. An important aspect of the model is its ability to enclose in the judgment of rating also the qualitative part. The objective is to modify the quantitative score including the qualitative judgments that emerge from a qualitative questionnaire. The final rating, therefore, is constructed assigning the final score (quantitative plus qualitative) to the class of rating that it includes such value. So a synthetic judgment of the solvency, the solidity and the forecasts is supplied about the firm analysis. In conclusion we can say that the obtained results confirm the reliability of the model. The error percentage, in fact, is only of 13. 65% for the performing firm and 8. 91% for the non performing. Further analyses have demonstrated that the model turns out reliable also in relation to possible distortions generated from dimensional (analysis for number of employers) and geographical (analysis for province) effects. Contrarily a surveying on industry does not give the same results. Various industry are characterize from different variability coefficients and it implies a meaningful sectorial effect

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan DE NONI & Antonio LORENZON & Luigi ORSI, 2007. "Measuring and managing credit risk in SMEs: a quantitative and qualitative rating model," Departmental Working Papers 2007-36, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    • Handle: RePEc:mil:wpdepa:2007-36
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://wp.demm.unimi.it/files/wp/2007/DEMM-2007_036wp.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    2. Andrea GANZAROLI & Gianluca FISCATO & Luciano PILOTTI, 2006. "Does business succession enhance firms’ innovation capacity? Results from an exploratory analysis in Italian SMEs," Departmental Working Papers 2006-29, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    3. Anitesh Barua & Charles H. Kriebel & Tridas Mukhopadhyay, 1995. "Information Technologies and Business Value: An Analytic and Empirical Investigation," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 3-23, March.
    4. Grunert, Jens & Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2005. "The role of non-financial factors in internal credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 509-531, February.
    5. Altman, Edward I. & Haldeman, Robert G. & Narayanan, P., 1977. "ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-54, June.
    6. Andrea GANZAROLI & Gianluca FISCATO & Luciano PILOTTI, 2006. "A scoreboard to evaluate clusters’ competitiveness in the knowledge-based economy. An empirical study on Emilia Romagna region," Departmental Working Papers 2006-30, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ivan DE NONI & Luigi ORSI & Diego TAVECCHIA, 2007. "Benchmarking for SMEs: toward a competitive rating system," Departmental Working Papers 2007-42, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    2. Mitroussi, K. & Abouarghoub, W. & Haider, J.J. & Pettit, S.J. & Tigka, N., 2016. "Performance drivers of shipping loans: An empirical investigation," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(P3), pages 438-452.
    3. Situm Mario, 2014. "Inability of Gearing-Ratio as Predictor for Early Warning Systems," Business Systems Research, Sciendo, vol. 5(2), pages 23-45, September.
    4. fernández, María t. Tascón & gutiérrez, Francisco J. Castaño, 2012. "Variables y Modelos Para La Identificación y Predicción Del Fracaso Empresarial: Revisión de La Investigación Empírica Reciente," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 7-58.
    5. Zhichao Luo & Pingyu Hsu & Ni Xu, 2020. "SME Default Prediction Framework with the Effective Use of External Public Credit Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-18, September.
    6. Van Laere, Elisabeth & Baesens, Bart, 2010. "The development of a simple and intuitive rating system under Solvency II," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 500-510, June.
    7. Francesco Ciampi & Valentina Cillo & Fabio Fiano, 2020. "Combining Kohonen maps and prior payment behavior for small enterprise default prediction," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1007-1039, April.
    8. Jones, Stewart & Wang, Tim, 2019. "Predicting private company failure: A multi-class analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 161-188.
    9. Ana Paula Matias Gama & Helena Susana Amaral Geraldes, 2012. "Credit risk assessment and the impact of the New Basel Capital Accord on small and medium‐sized enterprises," Management Research Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(8), pages 727-749, July.
    10. Li, Chunyu & Lou, Chenxin & Luo, Dan & Xing, Kai, 2021. "Chinese corporate distress prediction using LASSO: The role of earnings management," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    11. Suzan Hol, 2006. "The influence of the business cycle on bankruptcy probability," Discussion Papers 466, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    12. Gropp, R. & Grundl, C. & Guttler, A., 2012. "Does Discretion in Lending Increase Bank Risk? Borrower Self-Selection and Loan Officer Capture Effects," Other publications TiSEM bfec5360-2a2b-47e4-ba3f-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Simon Cornée, 2014. "Soft Information and Default Prediction in Cooperative and Social Banks," Journal of Entrepreneurial and Organizational Diversity, European Research Institute on Cooperative and Social Enterprises, vol. 3(1), pages 89-103, June.
    14. Modina, Michele & Pietrovito, Filomena & Gallucci, Carmen & Formisano, Vincenzo, 2023. "Predicting SMEs’ default risk: Evidence from bank-firm relationship data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 254-268.
    15. Lin, Hsiou-Wei William & Lo, Huai-Chun & Wu, Ruei-Shian, 2016. "Modeling default prediction with earnings management," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 40(PB), pages 306-322.
    16. Fougère, D. & Golfier, C. & Horny, G. & Kremp, E., 2013. "What has been the impact of the 2008 crisis on firms’ default? (in French)," Working papers 463, Banque de France.
    17. Chiara Pederzoli & Grid Thoma & Costanza Torricelli, 2013. "Modelling Credit Risk for Innovative SMEs: the Role of Innovation Measures," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 111-129, August.
    18. Enrico Supino & Nicola Piras, 2022. "Le performance dei modelli di credit scoring in contesti di forte instabilit? macroeconomica: il ruolo delle Reti Neurali Artificiali," MANAGEMENT CONTROL, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2022(2), pages 41-61.
    19. Adriana Csikosova & Maria Janoskova & Katarina Culkova, 2020. "Application of Discriminant Analysis for Avoiding the Risk of Quarry Operation Failure," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-14, September.
    20. Quader, Syed Manzur, 2017. "Differential effect of liquidity constraints on firm growth," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 20-29.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    SMEs; Rating Model; Competitiveness; Networking;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M14 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - Corporate Culture; Diversity; Social Responsibility
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mil:wpdepa:2007-36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: DEMM Working Papers (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/damilit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.