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The Role of Financial Factors in the Trade Collapse: A Skeptic's View

Author

Listed:
  • Andrei A. Levchenko

    (University of Michigan)

  • Logan T. Lewis

    (University of Michigan)

  • Linda L. Tesar

    (University of Michigan)

Abstract

This paper explores the role of financial factors in the 2008-9 collapse of U.S. imports and exports. Using highly disaggregated international trade data, we examine whether the cross-sectoral variation in how much imports or exports fell during this episode can be explained by financial variables. To do this, we employ a wide variety of possible indicators, such as standard measures of trade credit and external finance dependence, proxies for shipping lags at the sector level, and shares of intra-firm trade in each sector. Overall, there is very little evidence that financial factors played a role in the collapse of U.S. trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan T. Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2010. "The Role of Financial Factors in the Trade Collapse: A Skeptic's View," Working Papers 616, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    • Handle: RePEc:mie:wpaper:616
    as

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    File URL: http://www.fordschool.umich.edu/rsie/workingpapers/Papers601-625/r616.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Iacovone, Leonardo & Ferro, Esteban & Pereira-López, Mariana & Zavacka, Veronika, 2019. "Banking crises and exports: Lessons from the past," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 192-204.
    2. Hummels, David L. & Schaur, Georg, 2010. "Hedging price volatility using fast transport," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 15-25, September.
    3. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    4. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2009. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," Working Papers 592, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    5. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-586, June.
    6. Chor, Davin & Manova, Kalina, 2012. "Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 117-133.
    7. David Hummels, 2007. "Transportation Costs and International Trade in the Second Era of Globalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 131-154, Summer.
    8. Love, Inessa & Preve, Lorenzo A. & Sarria-Allende, Virginia, 2007. "Trade credit and bank credit: Evidence from recent financial crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 453-469, February.
    9. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2011. "Exports and Financial Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(4), pages 1841-1877.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Volpe Martincus, Christian & Carballo, Jerónimo & Graziano, Alejandro, 2015. "Customs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 119-137.
    2. Leibovici, Fernando & Waugh, Michael E., 2019. "International trade and intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 158-174.
    3. Michael Waugh & Fernando Leibovici, 2010. "Cyclical Fluctuations in International Trade Volumes," 2010 Meeting Papers 1095, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Nicolas Berman & José de Sousa & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2013. "Time to Ship during Financial Crises," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 225-260.
    5. Rudiger Ahrend & Antoine Goujard, 2012. "International Capital Mobility and Financial Fragility - Part 6. Are all Forms of Financial Integration Equally Risky in Times of Financial Turmoil?: Asset Price Contagion During the Global Financial ," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 969, OECD Publishing.
    6. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6ggbvnr6munghes9oc1hne632 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Muûls, Mirabelle, 2015. "Exporters, importers and credit constraints," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 333-343.
    8. Nakhoda, Aadil, 2012. "The influence of industry financial composition on export flow: A case study of a developing financial market," MPRA Paper 43792, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ahrend, Rudiger & Goujard, Antoine, 2014. "Are all forms of financial integration equally risky? Asset price contagion during the global financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 35-53.
    10. Buono, Ines & Formai, Sara, 2018. "The heterogeneous response of domestic sales and exports to bank credit shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 55-73.
    11. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/6ggbvnr6munghes9oc1hne632 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Kwan Yong Lee, 2023. "Financial dependence and exports: Entrants or incumbents?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 89(4), pages 1102-1137, April.
    13. ROTARU, Livia Maria, 2014. "The Financial Crisis – Explaining The Costs," Journal of Financial and Monetary Economics, Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 1(1), pages 187-193.
    14. Volpe Martincus, Christian, 2016. "Out of the Border Labyrinth: An Assessment of Trade Facilitation Initiatives in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 7994, November.
    15. Aadil Nakhoda, 2014. "The Influence of Industry Financial Composition on the Exports from Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 10, pages 21-49.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    2008-2009 Crisis; International Trade; Financial Factors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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