IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mea/meawpa/201214.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Subjective Life Expectancy and Private Pensions

Author

Listed:
  • Bucher-Koenen, Tabea
  • Kluth, Sebastian

    (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA))

Abstract

One important parameter in the decision process when buying a private annuity is individuals' subjective life expectancy, because it directly influences the expected rate of return. We examine the market for private annuities in Germany and evaluate potential selection e ffects based on subjective life expectancy. First individuals are pessimistic about their life span compared to the official life tables. Second we find a significant selection e ffect based on subjective life expectancy for women who invest in private annuity contracts - so-called Riester pensions. For men there seems to be no diff erence in subjective life expectancy by Riester ownership. Comparing the size of this selection eff ect with the underlying loading in life expectancy charged by the insurance industry shows that the latter appears to be in line for women but very high for men. Our fi ndings have strong policy implications. On the one hand misperceptions about longevity risk might prevent individuals from providing sufficiently for retirement. On the other hand mandated unisex tari ffs might especially discourage men from investing in Riester pensions, for them premiums in life expectancy are particularly high compared to subjective expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Bucher-Koenen, Tabea & Kluth, Sebastian, 2013. "Subjective Life Expectancy and Private Pensions," MEA discussion paper series 201214, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:201214
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://mea.mpisoc.mpg.de/uploads/user_mea_discussionpapers/1359_14-2012.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Essig, Lothar, 2005. "Personal assets and pension reform : how well prepared are the Germans?," Papers 05-19, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    2. Brown, Jeffrey R., 2001. "Private pensions, mortality risk, and the decision to annuitize," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 29-62, October.
    3. Amy Finkelstein & James Poterba, 2004. "Adverse Selection in Insurance Markets: Policyholder Evidence from the U.K. Annuity Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 183-208, February.
    4. Shlomo Benartzi & Alessandro Previtero & Richard H. Thaler, 2011. "Annuitization Puzzles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(4), pages 143-164, Fall.
    5. Olivia S. Mitchell, 1999. "New Evidence on the Money's Worth of Individual Annuities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1299-1318, December.
    6. V. Kerry Smith & Donald H. Taylor & Frank A. Sloan, 2001. "Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1126-1134, September.
    7. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Martin Gasche & Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2010. "Auswirkungen der Finanzkrise auf die private Altersvorsorge," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(4), pages 383-406, November.
    8. Federica Teppa, 2011. "Can the Longevity Risk Alleviate the Annuitization Puzzle? Empirical Evidence from Dutch Data," DNB Working Papers 302, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    9. Jeffrey R. Brown, 2007. "Rational and Behavioral Perspectives on the Role of Annuities in Retirement Planning," NBER Working Papers 13537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Maria Perozek, 2008. "Using subjective expectations to forecast longevity: do survey respondents know something we don’t know?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(1), pages 95-113, February.
    11. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1985. "Expectations, Life Expectancy, and Economic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(2), pages 389-408.
    12. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Essig, Lothar, 2005. "Personal assets and pension reform: How well prepared are the Germans?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-19, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    13. Michael D. Hurd & Kathleen McGarry, 1995. "Evaluation of the Subjective Probabilities of Survival in the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30, pages 268-292.
    14. Pierre-Andre Chiappori & Bernard Salanie, 2000. "Testing for Asymmetric Information in Insurance Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 56-78, February.
    15. Orazio P. Attanasio & Hilary Williamson Hoynes, 2000. "Differential Mortality and Wealth Accumulation," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 35(1), pages 1-29.
    16. Christian Pfarr & Udo Schneider, 2011. "Anreizeffekte und Angebotsinduzierung im Rahmen der Riester‐Rente: Eine empirische Analyse geschlechts‐ und sozialisationsbedingter Unterschiede," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(1), pages 27-46, February.
    17. Gasche, Martin & Ziegelmeyer, Michael, 2010. "Verbreitung der Riester-Rente - Hat die Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise Spuren hinterlassen?," MEA discussion paper series 10198, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    18. Johannes Geyer & Viktor Steiner, 2009. "Zahl der Riester-Renten steigt sprunghaft: aber Geringverdiener halten sich noch zurück," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(32), pages 534-541.
    19. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Gasche, Martin, 2010. "Zur Sinnhaftigkeit der Riester-Rente," MEA discussion paper series 10197, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    20. Michael D. Hurd & Kathleen McGarry, 2002. "The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(482), pages 966-985, October.
    21. Benjamin M. Friedman & Mark J. Warshawsky, 1990. "The Cost of Annuities: Implications for Saving Behavior and Bequests," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 135-154.
    22. Federica Teppa, 2011. "Can the longevity risk alleviate The annuitization puzzle? Empirical evidence from Dutch data," Working Papers 223, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    23. Rothschild, Casey G., 2009. "Adverse selection in annuity markets: Evidence from the British Life Annuity Act of 1808," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(5-6), pages 776-784, June.
    24. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Essig, Lothar, 2005. "Personal assets and pension reform: How well prepared are the Germans?," MEA discussion paper series 05085, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    25. Amy Finkelstein & James Poterba, 2002. "Selection Effects in the United Kingdom Individual Annuities Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(476), pages 28-50, January.
    26. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Reil-Held, Anette & Schunk, Daniel, 2008. "Saving incentives, old-age provision and displacement effects: evidence from the recent German pension reform," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(3), pages 295-319, November.
    27. Amy Finkelstein & Kathleen McGarry, 2006. "Multiple Dimensions of Private Information: Evidence from the Long-Term Care Insurance Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 938-958, September.
    28. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
    29. Coppola, Michela & Gasche, Martin, 2011. "Die Riester-Förderung – das unbekannte Wesen," MEA discussion paper series 11244, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cormac O'Dea & David Sturrock, 2019. "Survival pessimism and the demand for annuities," IFS Working Papers W19/02, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    2. Federica Teppa & Susan Thorp & Hazel Bateman, 2015. "Family, friends and framing: A cross-country study of subjective survival expectations," DNB Working Papers 491, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    3. Chen, An & Hieber, Peter & Rach, Manuel, 2021. "Optimal retirement products under subjective mortality beliefs," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PA), pages 55-69.
    4. Dimiter Philipov & Sergei Scherbov, 2020. "Subjective length of life of European individuals at older ages: Temporal and gender distinctions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-14, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:mea:meawpa:12265 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bucher-Koenen, Tabea & Kluth, Sebastian, 2013. "Subjective Life Expectancy and Private Pensions," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79806, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Liran Einav & Amy Finkelstein & Paul Schrimpf, 2007. "The Welfare Cost of Asymmetric Information: Evidence from the U.K. Annuity Market," NBER Working Papers 13228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Février, Philippe & Linnemer, Laurent & Visser, Michael, 2012. "Testing for asymmetric information in the viager market," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 104-123.
    5. Beshears, John & Choi, James J. & Laibson, David & Madrian, Brigitte C. & Zeldes, Stephen P., 2014. "What makes annuitization more appealing?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 2-16.
    6. Lambregts, Timo R. & Schut, Frederik T., 2020. "Displaced, disliked and misunderstood: A systematic review of the reasons for low uptake of long-term care insurance and life annuities," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    7. Börsch-Supan, A. & Härtl, K. & Leite, D.N., 2016. "Social Security and Public Insurance," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 781-863, Elsevier.
    8. Plisson, Manuel, 2009. "Assurabilité et développement de l'assurance dépendance," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/5064 edited by Lorenzi, Jean-Hervé.
    9. Johannes Hagen, 2015. "The determinants of annuitization: evidence from Sweden," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 22(4), pages 549-578, August.
    10. Milevsky, Moshe A. & Young, Virginia R., 2007. "Annuitization and asset allocation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 3138-3177, September.
    11. Raj Chetty & Amy Finkelstein, 2012. "Social Insurance: Connecting Theory to Data," NBER Working Papers 18433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Bütler, Monika & Peijnenburg, Kim & Staubli, Stefan, 2017. "How much do means-tested benefits reduce the demand for annuities?," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 419-449, October.
    13. Fang, H., 2016. "Insurance Markets for the Elderly," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 237-309, Elsevier.
    14. Amy Finkelstein & James Poterba, 2002. "Selection Effects in the United Kingdom Individual Annuities Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(476), pages 28-50, January.
    15. Amy Finkelstein & James Poterba, 2004. "Adverse Selection in Insurance Markets: Policyholder Evidence from the U.K. Annuity Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 183-208, February.
    16. Wu, Shang & Stevens, Ralph & Thorp, Susan, 2015. "Cohort and target age effects on subjective survival probabilities: Implications for models of the retirement phase," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 39-56.
    17. Cormac O'Dea & David Sturrock, 2019. "Survival pessimism and the demand for annuities," IFS Working Papers W19/02, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    18. Johannes Spinnewijn, 2017. "Heterogeneity, Demand for Insurance, and Adverse Selection," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 308-343, February.
    19. Joachim Inkmann & Paula Lopes & Alexander Michaelides, 2011. "How Deep Is the Annuity Market Participation Puzzle?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 279-319.
    20. Edwin Wong, 2015. "Marital bargaining in the demand for life insurance: evidence from the Health and Retirement Study," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 243-268, June.
    21. Roozbeh Hosseini, 2015. "Adverse Selection in the Annuity Market and the Role for Social Security," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(4), pages 941-984.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:201214. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Henning Frankenberger (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.mea.mpisoc.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.