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Users and Suppliers of Physician Services: A Tale of Two Populations

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  • Frank T. Denton
  • Amiram Gafni
  • Byron G. Spencer

Abstract

Physician shortages and their implications for required increases in the physician population are matters of considerable interest in many health care systems, in light especially of the widespread phenomenon of population ageing. To determine the extent to which shortages exist one needs to study the population of users of physician services as well as that of the physicians themselves. In this paper we study both, using the province of Ontario, Canada, as an example. The user population is projected and the implications for requirements calculated, conditional on given utilization rates. On the supplier side, the age and other characteristics of the (active) physician population are examined and patterns of withdrawal investigated. The necessary future growth of supply is calculated, assuming alternative levels of present shortages. The effects of population change on requirements are found to be smaller in the future than in the decade 1981- 1991, in the aggregate, not far from the effects in 1991-2001, but highly variable among different categories of physicians.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank T. Denton & Amiram Gafni & Byron G. Spencer, 2005. "Users and Suppliers of Physician Services: A Tale of Two Populations," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 136, McMaster University.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcm:sedapp:136
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    File URL: http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/sedap/p/sedap136.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Denton, Frank T. & Gafni, Amiram & Spencer, Byron G., 2002. "Exploring the effects of population change on the costs of physician services," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 781-803, September.
    2. M Barer & G Stoddart, 1991. "Toward Integrated Medical Resource Policies for Canada. 1. Background, Process and Perceived Problems," Centre for Health Economics and Policy Analysis Working Paper Series 1991-07A, Centre for Health Economics and Policy Analysis (CHEPA), McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada.
    3. G Stoddart & M Barer, 1991. "Toward Integrated Medical Resource Policies for Canada. 10. Information Creation and Dissemination," Centre for Health Economics and Policy Analysis Working Paper Series 1991-07J, Centre for Health Economics and Policy Analysis (CHEPA), McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada.
    4. Frank T. Denton & Amiram Gafni & Byron G. Spencer, 2001. "Population Change and the Requirements for Physicians: The Case of Ontario," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 27(4), pages 469-485, December.
    5. Boris Kralj, 2001. "Physician Distribution and Physician Shortage Intensity in Ontario," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 27(2), pages 167-178, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michel Grignon & Yaw Owusu & Arthur Sweetman, 2013. "The international migration of health professionals," Chapters, in: Amelie F. Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Migration, chapter 4, pages 75-97, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Britta Stoever, 2016. "Modelling the ambulant health-care sector in Germany," EcoMod2016 9214, EcoMod.
    3. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 2008. "An Application of Price and Quantity Indexes in the Analysis of Changes in Expenditures on Physician Services," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 228, McMaster University.
    4. Sibley, Lyn M. & Glazier, Richard H., 2012. "Evaluation of the equity of age–sex adjusted primary care capitation payments in Ontario, Canada," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 186-192.
    5. Ethel Yiranbon & Zhou Lulin & Henry Asante Antwi & Emmanuel Opoku Marfo & Kwame Oduro Amoako & Daniel Kwame Offin, 2014. "Evaluating the Consequences of Ageing Population on Healthcare Cost to Ghana using Inflation-Adjusted Expenditure and Demographic Factors," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 4(2), pages 282-290, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    physician shortages; physician requirements; population aging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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