IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mcm/deptwp/2020-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Rise and Fall of India's Relative Investment Price: A Tale of Policy Error and Reform

Author

Listed:
  • Alok Johri
  • Md Mahbubur Rahman

Abstract

India's relative price of investment rose 44% from 1981 to 1991 and fell 26% from 1991 to 2006. We build a simple DGE model calibrated to Indian data in order to explore the impact of capital import substitution policies and their reform post-1991, in accounting for this rise and fall. Our model delivers a 23% rise before reform and a 31% fall thereafter. GDP per effective labor was 3% lower in 1991 compared to 1981 due to import restrictions on capital goods. Their removal and a 71 percentage point reduction in tariff rates raised GDP per effective labor permanently by 20%.

Suggested Citation

  • Alok Johri & Md Mahbubur Rahman, 2020. "The Rise and Fall of India's Relative Investment Price: A Tale of Policy Error and Reform," Department of Economics Working Papers 2020-12, McMaster University.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2020-12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://socialsciences.mcmaster.ca/econ/rsrch/papers/archive/2020-12.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diego Restuccia, 2004. "Barriers to Capital Accumulation and Aggregate Total Factor Productivity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(1), pages 225-238, February.
    2. Alok Johri & Md Mahbubur Rahman, 2022. "The Rise and Fall of India's Relative Investment Price: A Tale of Policy Error and Reform," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 146-178, January.
    3. Brent Neiman, 2014. "The Global Decline of the Labor Share," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 61-103.
    4. Zsolt Darvas, 2012. "Real effective exchange rates for 178 countries: A new database," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1210, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    5. Boileau, Martin, 2002. "Trade in capital goods and investment-specific technical change," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 963-984, June.
    6. Armenter, Roc & Lahiri, Amartya, 2012. "Accounting for development through investment prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(6), pages 550-564.
    7. Piyusha Mutreja & Michael Sposi & B. Ravikumar, 2018. "Capital Goods Trade, Relative Prices and Economic Development," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 27, pages 101-122, January.
    8. Chamarbagwala, Rubiana & Sharma, Gunjan, 2011. "Industrial de-licensing, trade liberalization, and skill upgrading in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 314-336, November.
    9. Oksana M. Leukhina & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2016. "Population Size Effects in the Structural Development of England," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 195-229, July.
    10. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Amit Kumar Khandelwal & Nina Pavcnik & Petia Topalova, 2010. "Imported Intermediate Inputs and Domestic Product Growth: Evidence from India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(4), pages 1727-1767.
    11. Rana Hasan & Devashish Mitra & K.V. Ramaswamy, 2007. "Trade Reforms, Labor Regulations, and Labor-Demand Elasticities: Empirical Evidence from India," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(3), pages 466-481, August.
    12. Restuccia, Diego & Urrutia, Carlos, 2001. "Relative prices and investment rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 93-121, February.
    13. Roberto Samaniego & Juliana Sun, 2020. "The Relative Price of Capital and Economic Structure," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 127-155, July.
    14. Boucekkine, Raouf, 1995. "An alternative methodology for solving nonlinear forward-looking models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 711-734, May.
    15. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2008. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 45-66, Winter.
    16. Albert Bollard & Peter Klenow & Gunjam Sharma, 2013. "India's Mysterious Manufacturing Miracle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 59-85, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alok Johri & Md Mahbubur Rahman, 2022. "The Rise and Fall of India's Relative Investment Price: A Tale of Policy Error and Reform," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 146-178, January.
    2. Weicheng Lian & Natalija Novta & Evgenia Pugacheva & Yannick Timmer & Petia Topalova, 2020. "The Price of Capital Goods: A Driver of Investment Under Threat," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(3), pages 509-549, September.
    3. Weicheng Lian & Natalija Novta & Evgenia Pugacheva & Yannick Timmer & Petia Topalova, 0. "The Price of Capital Goods: A Driver of Investment Under Threat," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 0, pages 1-41.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Weicheng Lian & Natalija Novta & Evgenia Pugacheva & Yannick Timmer & Petia Topalova, 2020. "The Price of Capital Goods: A Driver of Investment Under Threat," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(3), pages 509-549, September.
    2. Chen, Chaoran, 2020. "Capital-skill complementarity, sectoral labor productivity, and structural transformation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    3. Sergii Meleshchuk & Yannick Timmer, 2024. "The price of capital goods, investment and labour: Micro‐evidence from a trade liberalization," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(3), pages 799-835, August.
    4. Michele Cavallo & Anthony Landry, 2018. "Capital-Goods Imports and US Growth," Staff Working Papers 18-1, Bank of Canada.
    5. Ahsan, Reshad N. & Mitra, Devashish, 2014. "Trade liberalization and labor's slice of the pie: Evidence from Indian firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-16.
    6. Weicheng Lian & Natalija Novta & Evgenia Pugacheva & Yannick Timmer & Petia Topalova, 0. "The Price of Capital Goods: A Driver of Investment Under Threat," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 0, pages 1-41.
    7. Albert Bollard & Peter Klenow & Gunjam Sharma, 2013. "India's Mysterious Manufacturing Miracle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 59-85, January.
    8. Albert Bollard & Peter Klenow & Gunjam Sharma, 2013. "India's Mysterious Manufacturing Miracle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 59-85, January.
    9. Ghosh, Saibal, 2013. "Do economic reforms matter for manufacturing productivity? Evidence from the Indian experience," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 723-733.
    10. Jessica Madariaga & Anton Bekkerman, 2020. "The Impact of Trade Openness on Relative Equipment Prices: Lessons from Latin America," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(348), pages 938-984, October.
    11. Juan Carlos Conesa & Pau S. Pujolas, 2019. "The Canadian productivity stagnation, 20022014," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 52(2), pages 561-583, May.
    12. Manuel García‐Santana & Josep Pijoan‐Mas & Lucciano Villacorta, 2021. "Investment Demand and Structural Change," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 2751-2785, November.
    13. Marijke J. D. Bos & Gonzague Vannoorenberghe, 2018. "Total factor productivity spillovers from trade reforms in India," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 549-606, May.
    14. Piyusha Mutreja & Michael Sposi & B. Ravikumar, 2018. "Capital Goods Trade, Relative Prices and Economic Development," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 27, pages 101-122, January.
    15. Jens Matthias Arnold & Beata Javorcik & Molly Lipscomb & Aaditya Mattoo, 2016. "Services Reform and Manufacturing Performance: Evidence from India," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(590), pages 1-39, February.
    16. Jan De Loecker & Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Amit K. Khandelwal & Nina Pavcnik, 2016. "Prices, Markups, and Trade Reform," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 445-510, March.
    17. Grobovšek Jan, 2018. "Development accounting with intermediate goods," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-27, January.
    18. Alexander Monge-Naranjo & Juan M. Sánchez & Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, 2019. "Natural Resources and Global Misallocation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 79-126, April.
    19. Verma, Priyam, 2024. "Optimal Infrastructure after Trade Reform in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    20. Marco Guerrazzi & Giuseppe Candido, 2025. "The determination of the price of capital goods: A differential game approach," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 46(1), pages 222-234, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Relative price of investment; Policy reform in India;

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2020-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/demcmca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.