IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mcm/deptwp/2018-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Intangible Capital, the Labor Wedge and the Volatility of Corporate Profits

Author

Listed:
  • Keqiang Hou
  • Alok Johri

Abstract

Corporate profit is six times more volatile than output. We estimate a dynamic general equilibrium model with intangible capital (IC) using aggregate data on output, investment and hours and find that it generates profits that are over five times as volatile as output. A similar model without IC relies on preference shocks to generate profits that are 3.5 times as volatile as output. Variance decomposition analysis reveals that shocks to IC productivity account for 85 % of the variance of output, and over 50 % of hours and investment. The increased volatility of profits is associated with a time-varying wedge between wages and the marginal product of labor which is shown to be highly correlated with the data-based labor wedge. The estimation identifies the sixties and the nineties as periods of rapid IC accumulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Keqiang Hou & Alok Johri, 2018. "Intangible Capital, the Labor Wedge and the Volatility of Corporate Profits," Department of Economics Working Papers 2018-01, McMaster University.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2018-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://socialsciences.mcmaster.ca/econ/rsrch/papers/archive/2018-01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1151-1180, September.
    2. Robert E. Hall, 2001. "The Stock Market and Capital Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1185-1202, December.
    3. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2007. "Markups, Gaps, and the Welfare Costs of Business Fluctuations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 44-59, November.
    4. Christopher Gunn & Alok Johri, 2011. "News and knowledge capital," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 92-101, January.
    5. Carol Corrado & Charles Hulten & Daniel Sichel, 2009. "Intangible Capital And U.S. Economic Growth," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(3), pages 661-685, September.
    6. Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "Why do Americans work so much more than Europeans?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 28(Jul), pages 2-13.
    7. Jason G. Cummins, 2005. "A New Approach to the Valuation of Intangible Capital," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Capital in the New Economy, pages 47-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Charles Ian Mead & Brent R. Moulton & Kenneth Petrick, 2004. "NIPA Corporate Profits and Reported Earnings: A Comparison and Measurement Issues," BEA Papers 0036, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    9. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2009. "New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 242-266, January.
    10. Cooper, Russell & Johri, Alok, 2002. "Learning-by-doing and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1539-1566, November.
    11. Clarke, Andrew J., 2006. "Learning-by-doing and aggregate fluctuations: Does the form of the accumulation technology matter?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 434-439, September.
    12. Robert Shimer, 2009. "Convergence in Macroeconomics: The Labor Wedge," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 280-297, January.
    13. Robert E. Hall, 2000. "E-Capital: The Link between the Stock Market and the Labor Market in the 1990s," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(2), pages 73-118.
    14. Hafedh Bouakez & Takashi Kano, 2006. "Learning-by-Doing or Habit Formation?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(3), pages 508-524, July.
    15. Lawrence J. Christiano & Michele Boldrin & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2001. "Habit Persistence, Asset Returns, and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 149-166, March.
    16. Alok Johri, 2009. "Delivering Endogenous Inertia in Prices and Output," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(4), pages 736-754, October.
    17. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2007. "Business Cycle Accounting," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(3), pages 781-836, May.
    18. John Geweke, 1999. "Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-73.
    19. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Lars Peter Hansen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1988. "A Time Series Analysis of Representative Agent Models of Consumption and Leisure Choice Under Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(1), pages 51-78.
    20. Jean-Pierre Danthine & Xiangrong Jin, 2007. "Intangible capital, corporate valuation and asset pricing," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 32(1), pages 157-177, July.
    21. Johri, Alok & Lahiri, Amartya, 2008. "Persistent real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 223-236, December.
    22. Galí, Jordi & Rabanal, Pau, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBC Model Fit Post-War US Data?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Gadi Barlevy, 2007. "On the Cyclicality of Research and Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1131-1164, September.
    24. Carol Corrado & John Haltiwanger & Daniel Sichel, 2005. "Measuring Capital in the New Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number corr05-1.
    25. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-775, August.
    26. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2010. "Unmeasured Investment and the Puzzling US Boom in the 1990s," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 88-123, October.
    27. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 313-382, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Johri, Alok & Letendre, Marc-Andre, 2007. "What do `residuals' from first-order conditions reveal about DGE models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2744-2773, August.
    29. John Geweke, 1999. "Using Simulation Methods for Bayesian Econometric Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 832, Society for Computational Economics.
    30. C. Lanier Benkard, 2000. "Learning and Forgetting: The Dynamics of Aircraft Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1034-1054, September.
    31. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    32. Kegiang Hou & Alok Johri, 2013. "Intangible Capital and the Excess Volatility of Aggregate Profits," Department of Economics Working Papers 2013-04, McMaster University.
    33. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "Reconciling Cyclical Movements in the Marginal Value of Time and the Marginal Product of Labor," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(2), pages 281-323, April.
    34. Alok Johri, 2009. "Delivering Endogenous Inertia in Prices and Output," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(4), pages 736-754, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Xing & Hou, Keqiang, 2019. "R&D based knowledge capital and future firm growth: Evidence from China’s Growth Enterprise Market firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 287-298.
    2. Epstein, Brendan & Mukherjee, Rahul & Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan & Ramnath, Shanthi, 2020. "Trends in aggregate employment, hours worked per worker, and the long-run labor wedge," MPRA Paper 99289, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Christoph Görtz & Christopher Gunn & Thomas Lubik, 2018. "Taking Stock of TFP News Shocks: The Inventory Comovement Puzzle," Carleton Economic Papers 18-05, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 14 Jul 2018.
    4. Shingo Ishiguro, 2022. "Management cycles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 73(1), pages 257-300, February.
    5. Li, Xing & Hou, Keqiang & Zhang, Chao, 2020. "Intangible factor and idiosyncratic volatility puzzles," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    6. Alok Johri & Bidyut Talukdar, 2023. "Organizational capital and optimal Ramsey taxation," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 193-210, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Keqiang Hou & Alok Johri, 2018. "Intangible Capital, the Labor Wedge and the Volatility of Corporate Profits," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 216-234, July.
    2. Kegiang Hou & Alok Johri, 2013. "Intangible Capital and the Excess Volatility of Aggregate Profits," Department of Economics Working Papers 2013-04, McMaster University.
    3. Alok Johri & Muhebullah Karimzada, 2021. "Learning efficiency shocks, knowledge capital and the business cycle: A Bayesian evaluation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 1314-1360, November.
    4. Johri, Alok & Letendre, Marc-André & Luo, Daqing, 2011. "Organizational capital and the international co-movement of investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 511-523.
    5. Keqiang Hou & Alok Johri, 2009. "Intangible Capital, Corporate Earnings and the Business Cycle," Department of Economics Working Papers 2009-17, McMaster University.
    6. Alok Johri, 2009. "Delivering Endogenous Inertia in Prices and Output," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(4), pages 736-754, October.
    7. Christopher Gunn & Alok Johri, 2011. "News and knowledge capital," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 92-101, January.
    8. Malik, Kashif Zaheer & Ali, Syed Zahid & Khalid, Ahmed M., 2014. "Intangible capital in a real business cycle model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 32-48.
    9. Li, Xing & Hou, Keqiang, 2019. "R&D based knowledge capital and future firm growth: Evidence from China’s Growth Enterprise Market firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 287-298.
    10. Alok Johri & Bidyut Talukdar, 2023. "Organizational capital and optimal Ramsey taxation," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 193-210, July.
    11. David Coble & Sebastián Faúndez, 2016. "The labor wedge and business cycles in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 19(1), pages 38-56, April.
    12. Clarke, Andrew J. & Johri, Alok, 2009. "Procyclical Solow Residuals Without Technology Shocks," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 366-389, June.
    13. Talukdar Bidyut, 2014. "Organizational learning and optimal fiscal and monetary policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 445-475, January.
    14. Hafedh Bouakez & Takashi Kano, 2006. "Learning-by-Doing or Habit Formation?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(3), pages 508-524, July.
    15. Munechika Katayama & Kwang Hwan Kim, 2018. "Intersectoral Labor Immobility, Sectoral Comovement, and News Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 77-114, February.
    16. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks´ Macro Models," Working Paper Series 323, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    17. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2010. "Investment shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 132-145, March.
    18. Charles R. Hulten & Xiaohui Hao, 2008. "What is a Company Really Worth? Intangible Capital and the "Market to Book Value" Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 14548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Inaba, Masaru & Nutahara, Kengo & Shirai, Daichi, 2022. "What drives fluctuations of labor wedge and business cycles? Evidence from Japan," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    20. Ohanian, Lee E. & Raffo, Andrea, 2012. "Aggregate hours worked in OECD countries: New measurement and implications for business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 40-56.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2018-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/demcmca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.