IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecorec/v80y2004is1ps1-s12.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effect of World Fertility Scenarios on International Living Standards

Author

Listed:
  • ROSS S. GUEST
  • IAN M. MCDONALD

Abstract

This paper applies a two good, multi‐region Ramsey‐Solow model of the world economy to determine the impact that alternative world fertility rates would have on international capital markets and living standards. Notable features of the model include: relative consumption demands and relative employment efficiencies that vary by age, traded and non‐traded goods, vintage technology, outward‐looking reference consumption, a proportion of non‐optimising rule‐of‐thumb consumers and imperfect capital mobility due to asymmetric information. The model suggests that projected demographic change will imply a flow of international capital from the ageing regions to the younger regions; and that the world interest rate will fall. The lower world interest rate will cause a loss in living standards for ageing regions, the lenders, and a gain for the younger regions, who are borrowers.

Suggested Citation

  • Ross S. Guest & Ian M. Mcdonald, 2004. "Effect of World Fertility Scenarios on International Living Standards," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(s1), pages 1-12, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:80:y:2004:i:s1:p:s1-s12
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.2004.00179.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.2004.00179.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1475-4932.2004.00179.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gordon, Roger H & Bovenberg, A Lans, 1996. "Why Is Capital So Immobile Internationally? Possible Explanations and Implications for Capital Income Taxation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1057-1075, December.
    2. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, April.
    4. D. Johannes Jüttner & Bernd P. Luedecke, 1991. "Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and Foreign Debt," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 67(2), pages 139-146, June.
    5. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
    6. Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Projected Population Aging in Industrial Countries," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Modelling and Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes, chapter 2, pages 17-56, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. repec:bla:ecorec:v:67:y:1991:i:197:p:139-46 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Dave Turner & Claude Giorno & Alain de Serres & Ann Vourc'h & Pete Richardson, 1998. "The Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing in a Global Context," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 193, OECD Publishing.
    9. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Louise M. Sheiner, 2000. "Should America Save for Its Old Age? Fiscal Policy, Population Aging, and National Saving," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 57-74, Summer.
    11. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Louise Sheiner, 2000. "Should America save for its old age? Population aging, national saving, and fiscal policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Fougere, Maxime & Merette, Marcel, 1999. "Population ageing and economic growth in seven OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 411-427, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2005. "Global Demographic Change And Japanese Macroeconomic Performance," CAMA Working Papers 2005-13, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Garry Young, 2002. "The implications of an ageing population for the UK economy," Bank of England working papers 159, Bank of England.
    2. Guest, Ross, 2007. "Innovations in the macroeconomic modelling of population ageing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 101-119, January.
    3. Guest, Ross S. & McDonald, Ian M., 2007. "Global GDP shares in the 21st century -- An equilibrium approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 859-877, November.
    4. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    5. Ross S. Guest & Ian M. McDonald, 2010. "Other‐Regarding Uzawa Preferences And Living Standard Catch‐Up," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 87-115, February.
    6. Ross Guest & John Bryant & Grant Scobie, 2004. "Population ageing in New Zealand: Implications for living standards and the optimal rate of national saving," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 1-20.
    7. Westerhout, Ed, 2018. "Paying for the Ageing Crisis : Who, How and When?," Discussion Paper 2018-001, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    8. Westerhout, Ed, 2018. "Paying for the Ageing Crisis : Who, How and When?," Other publications TiSEM 417903d2-6318-4744-891e-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Ross Guest & Grant Scobie & John Bryant, 2003. "Population Ageing in New Zealand: The Impact on Living Standards and the Optimal Rate of Saving with a Flexible Real Exchange Rate," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/34, New Zealand Treasury.
    10. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2091 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. de la Croix, David & Docquier, Frederic & Liegeois, Philippe, 2007. "Income growth in the 21st century: Forecasts with an overlapping generations model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 621-635.
    12. Dekle, Robert, 2004. "Financing consumption in an aging Japan: The role of foreign capital inflows and immigration," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 506-527, December.
    13. Lee, R., 2016. "Macroeconomics, Aging, and Growth," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 59-118, Elsevier.
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2091 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Jacques Le Cacheux & Vincent Touzé, 2002. "Les modèles d'équilibre général calculable à générations imbriquées. Enjeux, méthodes et résultats," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 80(1), pages 87-113.
    16. Sebastian Barnes & Garry Young, 2003. "The rise in US household debt: assessing its causes and sustainability," Bank of England working papers 206, Bank of England.
    17. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2004. "Global Aging: Issues, Answers, More Questions," MEA discussion paper series 04055, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    18. Mehmet Serkan Tosun, 2004. "Population Aging, Labor Mobility, and Economic Growth: Evidence From MENA and the Developed World," Working Papers 0417, Economic Research Forum, revised Aug 2004.
    19. Beetsma, Roel & Bettendorf, Leon & Broer, Peter, 2003. "The budgeting and economic consequences of ageing in the Netherlands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 987-1013, September.
    20. Heijdra, Ben J. & Ligthart, Jenny E., 2006. "The Macroeconomic Dynamics Of Demographic Shocks," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 349-370, June.
    21. Kyung‐Mook Lim & David N. Weil, 2003. "The Baby Boom and the Stock Market Boom," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 359-378, September.
    22. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2001. "Aging and International Capital Flows," Discussion Papers 605, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:80:y:2004:i:s1:p:s1-s12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esausea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.