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Testing for Shifts in a Time Trend Panel Data Model with Serially Correlated Error Component Disturbances

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This paper studies testing of shifts in a time trend panel data model with serially correlated error component disturbances, without any prior knowledge of whether the error term is stationary or nonstationary. This is done in case the shift is known as well as unknown. Following Vogelsang (1997) in the time series literature, we propose a Wald type test statistic that uses a fixed effects feasible generalized least squares (FE-FGLS) estimator derived in Baltagi, et al. (2014). The proposed test has a Chi-square limiting distribution and is valid for both J(O) and J(l) errors. The finite sample size and power of this Wald test is investigated using Monte Carlo simulations.

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  • Badi Baltagi & Chihwa Kao & Long Liu, 2019. "Testing for Shifts in a Time Trend Panel Data Model with Serially Correlated Error Component Disturbances," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 213, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    • Handle: RePEc:max:cprwps:213
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    File URL: https://surface.syr.edu/cpr/245/
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    1. Perron, Pierre & Zhu, Xiaokang, 2005. "Structural breaks with deterministic and stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 65-119.
    2. Peter C.B. Phillips & Chin Chin Lee, 1996. "Efficiency Gains from Quasi-Differencing Under Nonstationarity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1134, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Badi H. Baltagi & Chihwa Kao & Long Liu, 2014. "Test of Hypotheses in a Time Trend Panel Data Model with Serially Correlated Error Component Disturbances," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Peter C. B. Phillips, volume 33, pages 347-394, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    4. Peter Phillips & Hyungsik Moon, 2000. "Nonstationary panel data analysis: an overview of some recent developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 263-286.
    5. Perron, Pierre & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2009. "Testing for Shifts in Trend With an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 369-396.
    6. Perron, Pierre & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2009. "Estimating deterministic trends with an integrated or stationary noise component," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 151(1), pages 56-69, July.
    7. Peter C. B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1057-1112, September.
    8. Badi H. Baltagi & Chihwa Kao & Long Liu, 2017. "Estimation and identification of change points in panel models with nonstationary or stationary regressors and error term," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1-3), pages 85-102, March.
    9. Baltagi, Badi H. & Li, Qi, 1991. "A transformation that will circumvent the problem of autocorrelation in an error-component model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 385-393, June.
    10. Vogelsang, Timothy J., 1997. "Wald-Type Tests for Detecting Breaks in the Trend Function of a Dynamic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(6), pages 818-848, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Qi Li & Vasilis Sarafidis & Joakim Westerlund, 2021. "Essays in honor of Professor Badi H Baltagi," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 1-11, January.
    2. Chihwa Kao & Long Liu & Rui Sun, 2021. "A bias-corrected fixed effects estimator in the dynamic panel data model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 205-225, January.
    3. Li, Qi & Sarafidis, Vasilis & Westerlund, Joakim, 2020. "Essays in Honor of Professor Badi H Baltagi: Editorial," MPRA Paper 104751, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-Stationary Panels; Time Trends; Serial Correlation; Wald Type Tests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

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